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KABQ / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
57%
EPS
29%
AIFS
10%
HRES
6%
WN2
4%
Consensus
16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 30.6¢Risks 30.60u
VS
WN2NO 69.4¢Risks 69.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +69.40u · WN2 −69.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-11T03:45:20+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00AIFS Single: 9.9% · 2026-10-11T13:35:55+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-11T03:45:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.9% · 2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.9% · 2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.9% · 2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.9% · 2026-10-11T13:35:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.2% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.8% · 2026-10-11T03:45:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.8% · 2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.3% · 2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.3% · 2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.3% · 2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.3% · 2026-10-11T13:35:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.3% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00IFS HRES: 40.0% · 2026-10-11T03:45:20+00:00IFS HRES: 40.0% · 2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00IFS HRES: 40.0% · 2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00IFS HRES: 40.0% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00IFS HRES: 40.0% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00IFS HRES: 6.4% · 2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:00IFS HRES: 6.4% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00IFS HRES: 6.4% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00IFS HRES: 6.4% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS HRES: 6.4% · 2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:00IFS HRES: 6.4% · 2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00IFS HRES: 6.4% · 2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00IFS HRES: 6.4% · 2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00IFS HRES: 6.4% · 2026-10-11T13:35:55+00:00IFS HRES: 6.4% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00ICON: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T03:45:20+00:00ICON: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00ICON: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00ICON: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00ICON: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00ICON: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:00ICON: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00ICON: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00ICON: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00ICON: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:00ICON: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00ICON: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00ICON: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00ICON: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T13:35:55+00:00ICON: 56.9% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:0010-11 03:4510-11 09:0310-11 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T03:45:20+00:0017.5%55.0%4.8%40.0%56.9%
2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:0017.5%55.0%4.8%40.0%56.9%
2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:0017.5%55.0%9.4%40.0%56.9%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:0017.5%55.0%9.4%40.0%56.9%
2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:0017.5%55.0%9.4%40.0%56.9%
2026-10-11T07:32:34+00:008.3%55.0%9.4%6.4%56.9%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:008.3%55.0%9.4%6.4%56.9%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:008.3%55.0%9.4%6.4%56.9%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:008.3%55.0%9.4%6.4%56.9%
2026-10-11T10:34:15+00:008.3%55.0%9.4%6.4%56.9%
2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:008.3%28.9%4.3%6.4%56.9%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:008.3%28.9%4.3%6.4%56.9%
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:008.3%28.9%4.3%6.4%56.9%
2026-10-11T13:35:55+00:009.9%28.9%4.3%6.4%56.9%
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:009.6%29.2%4.3%6.4%56.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON57%69.2°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:000.3238
NWS forecast53%68.0°F5.8°F2026-10-11 02:000.2852
National Blend30%64.0°F6.7°F2026-10-11 06:000.0900
IFS Ensemble29%64.6°F5.3°F2026-10-11 00:000.0853
AIFS Single10%60.6°F5.3°F2026-10-11 06:000.0092
IFS HRES6%57.5°F6.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.0041
WeatherNext 24%59.7°F4.5°F2026-10-11 00:000.0018

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261017-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗