KABQ / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

29%

10%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 30.6¢Risks 30.60u

WN2NO 69.4¢Risks 69.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +69.40u · WN2 −69.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	2.4%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	45.6%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	37.8%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	22.3%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	31.1%	10.2%	2.1%	—	11.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	19.9%	35.7%	—	10.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	14.6%	0.9%	—	4.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	11.9%	23.0%	—	2.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.2%	16.8%	22.5%	—	4.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.1%	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.1%	6.2%	4.3%	—	1.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.0%	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	5.3%	7.9%	27.4%	—	0.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	9.6%	8.8%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	12.1%	13.1%	21.8%	—	5.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	5.7%	18.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	9.8%	17.6%	15.7%	—	5.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	18.3%	16.9%	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	6.6%	24.7%	5.6%	0.0%	5.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.5%	12.3%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.1%	11.6%	3.5%	—	2.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	9.7%	9.7%	3.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.9%	10.0%	4.0%	2.6%	2.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.8%	7.2%	4.3%	—	2.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.9%	4.6%	1.7%	1.3%	2.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	7.1%	2.3%	1.7%	—	1.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.7%	2.3%	1.6%	1.1%	1.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.7%	1.0%	0.9%	—	0.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.9%	1.2%	0.4%	1.1%	0.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.7%	1.1%	0.6%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	57%	69.2°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.3238
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 02:00	0.2852
National Blend	30%	64.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0900
IFS Ensemble	29%	64.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0853
AIFS Single	10%	60.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0092
IFS HRES	6%	57.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0041
WeatherNext 2	4%	59.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0018

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261017-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗