KABQ / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≤ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

38%

37%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 29.2¢Risks 29.20u

EPSNO 70.8¢Risks 70.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +70.80u · EPS −70.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	38.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	82.7%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	—	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	16.1%	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	70.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	20.2%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	33.6%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	23.0%	51.4%	78.6%	—	48.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	—	33.0%	17.9%	—	47.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	99.0%	38.7%	84.9%	—	63.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	99.7%	41.3%	25.5%	—	71.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.2%	92.0%	30.8%	23.8%	—	60.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	92.8%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.8%	96.2%	50.0%	57.0%	—	74.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.2%	99.3%	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	50.0%	41.8%	15.4%	—	78.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	36.1%	37.9%	—	—	49.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	29.6%	27.9%	17.7%	—	44.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	43.0%	19.7%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	30.3%	19.0%	21.2%	—	40.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	16.9%	18.3%	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	69.9%	34.1%	10.9%	37.1%	100.0%	39.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	57.8%	20.6%	100.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	50.0%	19.9%	40.8%	—	47.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	20.8%	20.8%	38.1%	—	100.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	26.6%	18.2%	33.1%	40.1%	40.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	80.9%	36.1%	20.9%	29.1%	—	36.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	80.9%	39.4%	25.1%	40.7%	44.6%	38.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	16.4%	32.5%	37.7%	—	36.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	19.1%	29.3%	34.5%	40.0%	34.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	78.7%	23.6%	36.6%	38.1%	—	38.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	19.2%	30.3%	46.8%	31.7%	46.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	83.0%	13.2%	26.7%	33.9%	—	58.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	56%	60.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3091
AIFS Single	38%	61.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1452
WeatherNext 2	37%	61.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1340
National Blend	9%	65.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0081
IFS HRES	8%	65.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0066
IFS Ensemble	3%	66.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0008
NWS forecast	<1%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 60°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261017-TMAX-LE60
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 60°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗