KABQ / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

28%

24%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 37.3¢Risks 37.30u

EPSNO 62.7¢Risks 62.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +62.70u · EPS −62.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:34:26+00:00	58.7%	0.7%	11.5%	15.4%	40.4%
2026-10-14T11:21:00+00:00	58.7%	7.9%	47.1%	15.4%	40.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	58.7%	7.9%	47.1%	15.4%	40.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	58.7%	7.9%	47.1%	15.4%	40.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	59.6%	7.9%	47.1%	15.4%	40.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	59.6%	7.9%	47.1%	15.4%	40.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00	59.6%	7.9%	47.1%	15.4%	40.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	59.6%	7.9%	47.1%	15.4%	40.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	59.6%	7.9%	47.1%	15.4%	40.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00	59.6%	7.9%	39.4%	15.4%	40.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	59.6%	7.9%	39.4%	15.4%	40.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	59.6%	7.9%	39.4%	15.4%	40.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00	66.1%	7.9%	39.4%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	66.1%	7.9%	39.4%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	66.1%	7.9%	39.4%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	66.1%	7.9%	39.4%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	66.1%	7.9%	39.4%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	66.1%	7.9%	50.0%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	66.1%	7.9%	50.0%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	66.1%	7.9%	50.0%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	63.4%	7.9%	50.0%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	63.4%	7.9%	50.0%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	63.4%	7.9%	50.0%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	63.4%	7.9%	50.0%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-15T04:48:06+00:00	63.4%	7.9%	50.0%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	63.4%	7.9%	47.1%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	63.4%	7.9%	47.1%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	63.4%	7.9%	47.1%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-15T07:50:20+00:00	63.7%	7.9%	47.1%	14.7%	41.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	63.7%	7.9%	47.1%	14.7%	41.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	63.7%	7.9%	47.1%	14.7%	41.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00	63.7%	7.9%	47.1%	14.7%	41.4%
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	63.7%	7.9%	54.3%	14.7%	41.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:34+00:00	63.7%	7.9%	54.3%	14.7%	41.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	63.7%	7.1%	54.3%	14.7%	41.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:35+00:00	63.7%	7.1%	54.3%	14.7%	41.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	69.6%	7.1%	54.3%	14.7%	41.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	69.6%	7.1%	54.3%	14.7%	41.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:36+00:00	69.6%	7.1%	54.3%	14.7%	41.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	69.6%	7.1%	54.3%	14.7%	41.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	69.6%	7.1%	57.5%	14.7%	41.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	69.6%	7.1%	57.5%	14.7%	41.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	69.6%	7.1%	57.5%	14.7%	41.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	69.6%	7.1%	57.5%	14.7%	41.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	68.7%	7.1%	57.5%	16.5%	45.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00	68.7%	7.1%	57.5%	16.5%	45.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	68.7%	7.1%	57.5%	16.5%	45.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	68.7%	7.1%	57.5%	16.5%	45.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	68.7%	7.1%	55.4%	16.5%	45.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	68.7%	7.1%	55.4%	16.5%	45.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	68.7%	7.1%	55.4%	16.5%	45.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	70.6%	7.1%	55.4%	16.5%	45.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	70.6%	7.1%	55.4%	16.5%	45.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	70.6%	7.1%	55.4%	16.5%	45.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	70.6%	7.1%	55.4%	16.5%	45.7%
2026-10-16T04:24:55+00:00	70.6%	7.1%	55.4%	16.5%	45.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	70.6%	7.1%	35.3%	16.5%	45.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	70.6%	7.1%	35.3%	16.5%	45.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	70.6%	7.1%	35.3%	16.5%	45.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	74.8%	7.1%	35.3%	16.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	74.8%	7.1%	35.3%	16.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	74.8%	7.1%	35.3%	16.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	74.8%	7.1%	35.3%	16.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	74.8%	7.1%	35.3%	16.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:25+00:00	74.8%	7.1%	39.3%	16.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	74.8%	7.1%	39.3%	16.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	74.8%	7.1%	39.3%	16.5%	50.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	71.8%	7.1%	39.3%	7.6%	50.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	71.8%	7.1%	39.3%	7.6%	50.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	71.8%	7.1%	39.3%	7.6%	50.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	71.8%	7.1%	39.3%	7.6%	50.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	71.8%	7.1%	39.3%	7.6%	50.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	71.8%	7.1%	39.3%	7.6%	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	71.8%	7.1%	39.3%	7.6%	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	71.8%	7.1%	39.3%	7.6%	50.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:14+00:00	71.8%	7.1%	39.3%	7.6%	28.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	71.8%	7.1%	39.3%	7.6%	28.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	71.8%	7.1%	39.3%	7.6%	28.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	71.8%	7.1%	39.3%	7.6%	28.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	71.8%	7.1%	39.3%	7.6%	28.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	71.8%	7.1%	48.8%	7.6%	28.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	71.8%	7.1%	48.8%	7.6%	28.2%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	71.8%	7.1%	48.8%	7.6%	28.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	67.5%	7.1%	48.8%	7.6%	28.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	67.5%	7.1%	48.8%	7.6%	28.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	67.5%	7.1%	48.8%	7.6%	28.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	67.5%	7.1%	48.8%	7.6%	28.2%
2026-10-17T04:42:20+00:00	67.5%	7.1%	48.8%	7.6%	28.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	67.5%	7.1%	24.3%	7.6%	28.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	67.5%	7.1%	24.3%	7.6%	28.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	67.5%	7.1%	24.3%	7.6%	28.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	31.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.4556
ICON	28%	34.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0795
WeatherNext 2	24%	34.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0590
IFS HRES	8%	36.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0058
IFS Ensemble	7%	34.7°F	1.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0050
NWS forecast	<1%	41.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261017-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗