KABQ / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

28%

24%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 37.3¢Risks 37.30u

EPSNO 62.7¢Risks 62.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +62.70u · EPS −62.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	0.5%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	36.9%	1.1%	0.0%	—	2.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	0.1%	0.0%	—	3.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	3.6%	0.3%	0.1%	—	8.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	2.7%	0.1%	0.1%	—	4.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	1.6%	0.1%	0.2%	—	4.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	0.2%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	—	2.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.2%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	1.2%	0.0%	0.1%	—	3.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	25.3%	0.0%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	40.4%	0.0%	6.5%	—	22.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	28.2%	0.0%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	36.9%	0.0%	6.4%	—	25.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	36.5%	0.0%	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	41.3%	0.0%	5.3%	99.0%	27.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	44.4%	0.0%	2.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	45.4%	0.0%	5.4%	—	32.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	41.6%	0.0%	3.5%	—	31.4%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	50.0%	0.0%	4.0%	99.9%	24.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	53.9%	0.0%	3.0%	—	26.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	26.2%	0.0%	3.0%	100.0%	28.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	58.3%	31.2%	0.0%	3.5%	—	27.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.2%	47.1%	0.0%	5.1%	99.9%	21.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	32.5%	0.0%	5.1%	—	33.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	23.8%	0.0%	6.6%	100.0%	40.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	31.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.4556
ICON	28%	34.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0795
WeatherNext 2	24%	34.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0590
IFS HRES	8%	36.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0058
IFS Ensemble	7%	34.7°F	1.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0050
NWS forecast	<1%	41.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261017-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗