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KABQ / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
92%
EPS
80%
AIFS
61%
ICON
30%
WN2
28%
Consensus
62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 60.0¢Risks 59.95u
VS
WN2NO 40.0¢Risks 40.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +40.05u · WN2 −40.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T04:42:20+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-17T07:45:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-17T04:42:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-17T07:45:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.1% · 2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.1% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.1% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.1% · 2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.6% · 2026-10-17T04:42:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.7% · 2026-10-17T07:45:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00IFS HRES: 85.3% · 2026-10-17T04:42:20+00:00IFS HRES: 85.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00IFS HRES: 85.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00IFS HRES: 85.3% · 2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00IFS HRES: 91.9% · 2026-10-17T07:45:00+00:00IFS HRES: 91.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00IFS HRES: 91.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00IFS HRES: 91.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00IFS HRES: 91.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS HRES: 91.9% · 2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00IFS HRES: 91.9% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00IFS HRES: 91.9% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00IFS HRES: 91.9% · 2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00IFS HRES: 91.9% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00ICON: 16.1% · 2026-10-17T04:42:20+00:00ICON: 16.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00ICON: 16.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00ICON: 16.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T07:45:00+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:0010-17 04:4210-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:42:20+00:0061.6%73.5%11.6%85.3%16.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:0061.6%73.5%33.7%85.3%16.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:0061.6%73.5%33.7%85.3%16.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:0061.6%73.5%33.7%85.3%16.1%
2026-10-17T07:45:00+00:0060.0%73.5%33.7%91.9%29.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:0060.0%73.5%33.7%91.9%29.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:0060.0%73.5%33.7%91.9%29.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:0060.0%73.5%33.7%91.9%29.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0060.0%73.5%33.7%91.9%29.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:0060.0%80.1%28.0%91.9%29.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:0060.0%80.1%28.0%91.9%29.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:0060.0%80.1%28.0%91.9%29.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:0061.0%80.1%28.0%91.9%29.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:0061.0%79.6%28.0%91.9%29.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES92%70.7°F3.7°F2026-10-17 00:000.0066
IFS Ensemble80%68.4°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:000.0416
National Blend68%67.0°F3.3°F2026-10-17 06:000.1056
AIFS Single61%66.6°F3.9°F2026-10-17 06:000.1521
NWS forecast56%66.0°F3.1°F2026-10-17 03:000.1901
ICON30%63.6°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:000.4970
WeatherNext 228%63.8°F2.9°F2026-10-17 00:000.5184

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗