KABQ / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

80%

61%

30%

28%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 60.0¢Risks 59.95u

WN2NO 40.0¢Risks 40.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +40.05u · WN2 −40.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	13.3%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	69.8%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	53.9%	—	—	46.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	54.0%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	22.4%	60.4%	2.4%	—	32.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	40.6%	65.7%	79.5%	—	27.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.5%	51.5%	64.2%	82.6%	—	38.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	42.9%	0.5%	64.8%	—	28.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	27.2%	45.8%	70.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	3.6%	56.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	19.6%	30.7%	54.4%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	24.9%	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	32.2%	57.3%	27.4%	—	28.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	12.2%	67.4%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	9.4%	10.2%	37.6%	—	26.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	14.6%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	29.4%	2.4%	69.7%	—	32.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	52.1%	41.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	50.0%	39.2%	62.9%	—	22.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	42.2%	4.0%	0.0%	—	29.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	17.5%	54.6%	58.1%	—	25.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	46.4%	31.4%	71.7%	—	22.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	42.6%	40.1%	74.4%	51.2%	37.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.1%	42.3%	43.6%	68.7%	—	29.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	51.3%	55.4%	73.9%	47.3%	31.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	55.6%	51.4%	82.7%	—	33.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	54.3%	64.2%	82.8%	60.1%	30.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	38.1%	51.5%	72.8%	—	22.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	62.4%	65.4%	91.1%	73.7%	11.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	74.6%	56.6%	71.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	92%	70.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0066
IFS Ensemble	80%	68.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0416
National Blend	68%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1056
AIFS Single	61%	66.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1521
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901
ICON	30%	63.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.4970
WeatherNext 2	28%	63.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.5184

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗