KABQ / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

55%

42%

28%

18%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 43.9¢Risks 43.85u

ICONNO 56.1¢Risks 56.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +56.15u · ICON −56.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:54+00:00	36.7%	38.0%	7.3%	38.2%	42.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	36.7%	38.0%	7.3%	38.2%	42.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	36.7%	38.0%	11.7%	38.2%	42.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	36.7%	38.0%	11.7%	38.2%	42.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	36.7%	38.0%	11.7%	38.2%	42.8%
2026-10-12T07:48:57+00:00	22.5%	38.0%	11.7%	15.0%	51.1%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	22.5%	38.0%	11.7%	15.0%	51.1%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	22.5%	38.0%	11.7%	15.0%	51.1%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	22.5%	38.0%	11.7%	15.0%	51.1%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	22.5%	38.0%	11.7%	15.0%	51.1%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	22.5%	38.0%	9.4%	15.0%	51.1%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	22.5%	19.3%	9.4%	15.0%	51.1%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	22.5%	19.3%	9.4%	15.0%	51.1%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	44.7%	19.3%	9.4%	15.0%	51.1%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	44.8%	19.7%	9.5%	15.0%	51.1%
2026-10-12T15:27:43+00:00	44.8%	19.7%	9.5%	15.0%	51.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	44.8%	21.2%	9.5%	15.0%	51.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	44.8%	21.2%	13.2%	15.0%	51.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	44.8%	21.2%	13.2%	15.0%	51.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	44.8%	21.2%	13.2%	15.0%	51.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	44.8%	21.2%	13.2%	15.0%	51.1%
2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00	50.0%	21.2%	13.2%	59.6%	59.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	50.0%	21.2%	13.2%	59.6%	59.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	50.0%	21.2%	13.2%	59.6%	59.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	50.0%	21.2%	13.2%	59.6%	59.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	50.0%	21.2%	12.8%	59.6%	59.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	50.0%	21.2%	12.8%	59.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	50.0%	21.2%	12.8%	59.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	50.0%	21.2%	12.8%	59.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	51.5%	21.2%	12.8%	59.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	51.5%	21.2%	12.8%	59.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	51.5%	21.2%	12.8%	59.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T04:16:19+00:00	51.5%	21.2%	12.8%	59.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	51.5%	21.2%	22.8%	59.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	51.5%	21.2%	22.8%	59.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	51.5%	21.2%	22.8%	59.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	51.5%	21.2%	22.8%	59.6%	59.6%
2026-10-13T08:04:12+00:00	52.4%	21.2%	22.8%	67.4%	48.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	52.4%	21.2%	22.8%	67.4%	48.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	52.4%	21.2%	22.8%	67.4%	48.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	52.4%	21.2%	22.8%	67.4%	48.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	52.4%	45.8%	12.5%	67.4%	48.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:42+00:00	52.4%	45.8%	12.5%	67.4%	48.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	52.4%	45.8%	12.5%	67.4%	48.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	52.4%	45.8%	12.5%	67.4%	48.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	50.0%	45.8%	12.6%	67.4%	48.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	50.0%	44.8%	12.6%	67.4%	48.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	50.0%	44.8%	12.6%	67.4%	48.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	50.0%	44.8%	12.6%	67.1%	48.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	50.0%	44.8%	13.2%	67.1%	48.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	50.0%	44.8%	13.2%	67.1%	48.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	50.0%	44.8%	13.2%	67.1%	48.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	54.0%	44.8%	13.2%	67.1%	34.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	54.0%	44.8%	13.2%	67.1%	34.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	54.0%	44.8%	13.2%	67.1%	34.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	54.0%	44.8%	13.2%	67.1%	34.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	54.0%	44.8%	13.2%	69.6%	34.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	54.0%	44.8%	18.5%	69.8%	34.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	54.0%	44.8%	18.5%	69.8%	34.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	54.0%	44.8%	18.5%	69.8%	34.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	48.4%	44.8%	18.5%	69.8%	34.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	48.4%	44.8%	18.5%	69.8%	34.8%
2026-10-14T03:00:02+00:00	48.4%	44.8%	18.5%	69.8%	34.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00	48.4%	44.8%	18.5%	69.8%	34.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	48.4%	44.8%	18.5%	69.8%	34.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	48.4%	44.8%	18.5%	69.8%	34.8%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	48.4%	44.8%	18.5%	69.8%	34.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	48.4%	44.8%	18.5%	69.8%	34.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	38.0%	44.8%	18.5%	69.8%	18.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	38.0%	44.8%	18.5%	69.8%	18.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	38.0%	44.8%	18.5%	69.8%	18.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00	38.0%	44.8%	18.5%	69.8%	18.6%
2026-10-14T10:34:28+00:00	38.0%	44.8%	18.5%	71.9%	18.6%
2026-10-14T11:21:00+00:00	38.0%	47.1%	2.6%	71.9%	18.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	38.0%	47.1%	2.6%	71.9%	18.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	38.0%	47.1%	2.6%	71.9%	18.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	47.4%	47.1%	2.6%	71.9%	18.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	47.4%	47.1%	2.6%	71.9%	19.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00	47.4%	46.1%	2.6%	71.9%	19.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	47.4%	46.1%	2.6%	71.9%	19.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	47.4%	46.1%	2.6%	71.9%	19.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00	47.4%	46.1%	3.8%	71.9%	19.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	47.4%	46.1%	3.8%	71.9%	19.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	47.4%	46.1%	3.8%	71.9%	19.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00	35.6%	46.1%	3.8%	68.4%	31.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	35.6%	46.1%	3.8%	68.4%	31.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	35.6%	46.1%	3.8%	68.4%	31.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	35.6%	46.1%	3.8%	68.4%	31.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	35.6%	46.1%	3.8%	68.4%	31.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	35.6%	46.1%	3.0%	68.4%	31.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	35.6%	46.1%	3.0%	68.4%	31.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	35.6%	46.1%	3.0%	68.4%	31.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	46.5%	46.1%	3.0%	68.4%	31.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	46.5%	46.1%	3.0%	68.4%	31.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	46.5%	46.1%	3.0%	68.4%	31.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	46.5%	46.1%	3.0%	68.4%	31.7%
2026-10-15T04:48:06+00:00	46.5%	46.1%	3.0%	68.4%	31.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	46.5%	46.1%	2.6%	68.4%	31.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	46.5%	46.1%	2.6%	68.4%	31.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	46.5%	46.1%	2.6%	68.4%	31.7%
2026-10-15T07:50:20+00:00	30.4%	46.1%	2.6%	73.4%	4.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	30.4%	46.1%	2.6%	73.4%	4.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	30.4%	46.1%	2.6%	73.4%	4.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00	30.4%	46.1%	2.6%	73.4%	4.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	30.4%	46.1%	2.3%	73.4%	4.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:34+00:00	30.4%	46.1%	2.3%	73.4%	4.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	30.4%	53.3%	2.3%	73.4%	4.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:35+00:00	30.4%	53.3%	2.3%	73.4%	4.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	23.4%	53.3%	2.3%	73.4%	4.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	23.4%	53.3%	2.3%	73.4%	4.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:36+00:00	23.4%	52.2%	2.3%	73.4%	4.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	23.4%	52.2%	2.3%	73.4%	4.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	23.4%	52.2%	1.8%	73.4%	4.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	23.4%	52.2%	1.8%	73.4%	4.6%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	23.4%	52.2%	1.8%	73.4%	4.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	23.4%	52.2%	1.8%	73.4%	4.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	41.7%	52.2%	1.8%	73.4%	19.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00	41.7%	52.2%	1.8%	73.4%	19.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	41.7%	52.2%	1.8%	73.4%	19.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	41.7%	52.2%	1.8%	73.4%	19.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	41.7%	52.2%	3.8%	73.4%	19.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	41.7%	52.2%	3.8%	73.4%	19.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	41.7%	52.2%	3.8%	73.4%	19.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	38.1%	52.2%	3.8%	73.4%	19.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	38.1%	52.2%	3.8%	73.4%	19.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	38.1%	52.2%	3.8%	73.4%	19.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	38.1%	52.2%	3.8%	73.4%	19.6%
2026-10-16T04:24:55+00:00	38.1%	52.2%	3.8%	73.4%	19.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	38.1%	52.2%	4.8%	73.4%	19.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	38.1%	52.2%	4.8%	73.4%	19.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	38.1%	52.2%	4.8%	73.4%	19.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	33.8%	52.2%	4.8%	73.4%	25.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	33.8%	52.2%	4.8%	73.4%	25.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	33.8%	52.2%	4.8%	73.4%	25.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	33.8%	52.2%	4.8%	73.4%	25.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	33.8%	52.2%	4.8%	73.4%	25.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:25+00:00	33.8%	52.3%	2.1%	73.4%	25.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	33.8%	52.3%	2.1%	73.4%	25.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	33.8%	52.3%	2.1%	73.4%	25.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	41.2%	52.3%	2.1%	76.8%	25.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	41.2%	52.3%	2.1%	76.8%	25.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	41.2%	51.2%	2.1%	76.8%	25.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	41.2%	51.2%	2.1%	76.8%	25.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	41.2%	51.2%	2.1%	76.8%	25.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	41.2%	51.2%	5.3%	76.8%	25.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	41.2%	51.2%	5.3%	76.8%	25.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	41.2%	51.2%	5.3%	76.8%	25.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:14+00:00	39.3%	51.2%	5.3%	76.8%	6.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	39.3%	51.2%	5.3%	76.8%	6.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	39.3%	51.2%	5.3%	76.8%	6.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	39.3%	51.2%	5.3%	76.8%	6.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	39.3%	51.2%	5.3%	71.3%	6.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	39.3%	51.2%	3.3%	71.3%	6.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	39.3%	51.2%	3.3%	71.3%	6.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	39.3%	51.2%	3.3%	71.3%	6.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	42.2%	51.2%	3.3%	71.3%	6.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	42.2%	51.2%	3.3%	71.3%	6.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	42.2%	51.2%	3.3%	71.3%	6.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	42.2%	51.2%	3.3%	71.3%	6.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:13+00:00	41.0%	54.5%	10.2%	80.5%	13.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	41.0%	54.5%	10.2%	80.5%	13.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	41.0%	54.5%	15.9%	80.5%	13.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	41.0%	54.5%	15.9%	80.5%	13.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	41.0%	54.5%	15.9%	80.5%	13.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	41.0%	54.5%	15.9%	80.5%	13.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:15+00:00	37.1%	54.5%	15.9%	69.5%	18.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	37.1%	54.5%	15.9%	69.5%	18.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	37.1%	54.5%	15.9%	69.5%	18.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	37.1%	54.5%	15.9%	69.5%	18.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	37.1%	54.5%	20.5%	69.5%	18.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	37.1%	54.5%	20.5%	69.5%	18.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	37.1%	54.5%	20.5%	69.5%	18.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	37.1%	54.5%	20.5%	69.5%	18.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	42.0%	54.5%	20.5%	69.5%	18.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	42.0%	54.5%	20.5%	69.5%	18.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	42.0%	54.5%	20.5%	69.5%	18.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:35+00:00	42.0%	54.5%	20.5%	69.5%	18.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	42.0%	54.5%	28.0%	69.5%	18.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	42.0%	54.5%	28.0%	69.5%	18.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	42.0%	54.5%	28.0%	69.5%	18.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	42.0%	54.5%	28.0%	69.5%	18.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	70%	69.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4830
National Blend	67%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.4516
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.3505
IFS Ensemble	55%	67.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2970
AIFS Single	42%	66.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1764
WeatherNext 2	28%	65.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0784
ICON	18%	64.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0331

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗