KABQ / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

55%

42%

28%

18%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 43.9¢Risks 43.85u

ICONNO 56.1¢Risks 56.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +56.15u · ICON −56.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	7.9%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	58.1%	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	61.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	41.0%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	40.6%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	13.4%	46.5%	1.0%	—	20.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	27.2%	51.5%	67.7%	—	16.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	36.5%	49.2%	71.1%	—	24.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	28.1%	0.1%	49.2%	—	16.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	15.2%	30.0%	54.2%	—	14.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	1.3%	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	9.7%	17.2%	37.1%	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	13.0%	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	17.8%	39.1%	14.4%	—	14.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	5.1%	49.0%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	3.5%	4.0%	21.0%	—	13.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	6.0%	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	14.5%	0.6%	50.0%	—	16.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	31.6%	22.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	29.2%	20.6%	41.3%	—	9.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	22.3%	1.0%	0.0%	—	13.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	6.5%	32.0%	35.2%	—	10.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	24.4%	13.9%	48.8%	—	8.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	20.8%	19.1%	51.2%	27.6%	17.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	20.0%	20.9%	43.6%	—	11.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	26.2%	29.5%	48.7%	23.0%	12.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	28.8%	25.3%	59.7%	—	13.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	26.8%	35.8%	58.6%	31.8%	10.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	14.4%	23.6%	44.0%	—	6.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	31.7%	34.6%	71.0%	43.7%	2.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	43.4%	25.4%	40.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	70%	69.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4830
National Blend	67%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.4516
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.3505
IFS Ensemble	55%	67.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2970
AIFS Single	42%	66.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1764
WeatherNext 2	28%	65.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0784
ICON	18%	64.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0331

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗