KABQ / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≤ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 04:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

23%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.3¢Risks 12.30u

HRESNO 87.7¢Risks 87.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.70u · HRES −87.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T04:42:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:34:28+00:00	7.6%	2.4%	14.8%	1.5%	22.1%
2026-10-14T11:21:00+00:00	7.6%	3.0%	41.5%	1.5%	22.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	7.6%	3.0%	41.5%	1.5%	22.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	7.6%	3.0%	41.5%	1.5%	22.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	4.7%	3.0%	41.5%	1.5%	22.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	4.7%	3.0%	41.5%	1.5%	21.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00	4.7%	3.2%	41.5%	1.5%	21.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	4.7%	3.2%	41.5%	1.5%	21.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	4.7%	3.2%	41.5%	1.5%	21.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00	4.7%	3.2%	35.3%	1.5%	21.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	4.7%	3.2%	35.3%	1.5%	21.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	4.7%	3.2%	35.3%	1.5%	21.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00	8.5%	3.2%	35.3%	1.9%	11.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	8.5%	3.2%	35.3%	1.9%	11.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	8.5%	3.2%	35.3%	1.9%	11.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	8.5%	3.2%	35.3%	1.9%	11.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	8.5%	3.2%	35.3%	1.9%	11.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	8.5%	3.2%	39.4%	1.9%	11.9%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	8.5%	3.2%	39.4%	1.9%	11.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	8.5%	3.2%	39.4%	1.9%	11.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	4.9%	3.2%	39.4%	1.9%	11.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	4.9%	3.2%	39.4%	1.9%	11.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	4.9%	3.2%	39.4%	1.9%	11.9%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	4.9%	3.2%	39.4%	1.9%	11.9%
2026-10-15T04:48:06+00:00	4.9%	3.2%	39.4%	1.9%	11.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	4.9%	3.2%	41.5%	1.9%	11.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	4.9%	3.2%	41.5%	1.9%	11.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	4.9%	3.2%	41.5%	1.9%	11.9%
2026-10-15T07:50:20+00:00	8.8%	3.2%	41.5%	0.8%	37.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	8.8%	3.2%	41.5%	0.8%	37.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	8.8%	3.2%	41.5%	0.8%	37.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00	8.8%	3.2%	41.5%	0.8%	37.2%
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	8.8%	3.2%	35.0%	0.8%	37.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:34+00:00	8.8%	3.2%	35.0%	0.8%	37.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	8.8%	1.0%	35.0%	0.8%	37.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:35+00:00	8.8%	1.0%	35.0%	0.8%	37.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	12.6%	1.1%	35.0%	0.8%	37.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	12.6%	1.1%	35.0%	0.8%	37.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:36+00:00	12.6%	1.1%	35.0%	0.8%	37.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	12.6%	1.1%	35.0%	0.8%	37.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	12.6%	1.1%	39.5%	0.8%	37.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	12.6%	1.1%	39.5%	0.8%	37.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	12.6%	1.1%	39.5%	0.8%	37.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	12.6%	1.1%	39.5%	0.8%	37.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	4.9%	1.1%	39.5%	0.8%	12.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00	4.9%	1.1%	39.5%	0.8%	12.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	4.9%	1.1%	39.5%	0.8%	12.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	4.9%	1.1%	39.5%	0.8%	12.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	4.9%	1.1%	27.6%	0.8%	12.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	4.9%	1.1%	27.6%	0.8%	12.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	4.9%	1.1%	27.6%	0.8%	12.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	5.9%	1.1%	27.6%	0.8%	12.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	5.9%	1.1%	27.6%	0.8%	12.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	5.9%	1.1%	27.6%	0.8%	12.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	5.9%	1.1%	27.6%	0.8%	12.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:55+00:00	5.9%	1.1%	27.6%	0.8%	12.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	5.9%	1.1%	23.8%	0.8%	12.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	5.9%	1.1%	23.8%	0.8%	12.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	5.9%	1.1%	23.8%	0.8%	12.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	6.1%	1.1%	23.8%	0.8%	5.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	6.1%	1.1%	23.8%	0.8%	5.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	6.1%	1.1%	23.8%	0.8%	5.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	6.1%	1.1%	23.8%	0.8%	5.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	6.1%	1.1%	23.8%	0.8%	5.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:25+00:00	6.1%	0.8%	29.2%	0.8%	5.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	6.1%	0.8%	29.2%	0.8%	5.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	6.1%	0.8%	29.2%	0.8%	5.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	4.5%	0.8%	22.9%	0.6%	24.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	4.5%	0.8%	22.9%	0.6%	24.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	4.5%	0.8%	22.9%	0.6%	24.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:21+00:00	3.8%	0.8%	22.9%	0.6%	24.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	24%	62.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0576
WeatherNext 2	23%	61.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0524
AIFS Single	4%	66.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0014
National Blend	2%	67.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0004
NWS forecast	2%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0003
IFS Ensemble	<1%	67.6°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0001
IFS HRES	<1%	69.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 59°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261018-TMAX-LE59
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗