KABQ / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≤ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 04:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

23%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.3¢Risks 12.30u

HRESNO 87.7¢Risks 87.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.70u · HRES −87.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	57.8%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	7.1%	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	14.1%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	13.2%	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.6%	38.2%	9.3%	82.0%	—	27.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	19.4%	6.6%	2.7%	—	31.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	11.8%	6.5%	1.8%	—	20.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	15.4%	91.9%	5.7%	—	26.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	75.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	25.8%	12.5%	3.8%	—	27.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	69.7%	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	32.2%	20.8%	7.7%	—	33.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	24.9%	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	17.8%	5.8%	21.6%	—	20.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	39.7%	3.0%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	44.2%	42.3%	12.6%	—	20.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	32.6%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	15.7%	67.0%	1.9%	—	13.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	5.0%	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	5.0%	8.5%	2.4%	—	19.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	6.7%	52.2%	99.8%	—	12.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	20.7%	3.1%	2.5%	—	14.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	4.3%	9.2%	0.9%	—	14.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	4.6%	5.2%	0.6%	2.8%	5.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	4.0%	3.7%	0.8%	—	8.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	2.0%	1.6%	0.4%	2.6%	6.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	1.3%	1.7%	0.1%	—	4.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	1.1%	0.5%	0.1%	0.7%	4.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	2.4%	1.0%	0.2%	—	6.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	0.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%	11.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	24%	62.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0576
WeatherNext 2	23%	61.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0524
AIFS Single	4%	66.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0014
National Blend	2%	67.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0004
NWS forecast	2%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0003
IFS Ensemble	<1%	67.6°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0001
IFS HRES	<1%	69.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 59°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261018-TMAX-LE59
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗