KABQ / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

25%

23%

<1%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 20.2¢Risks 20.15u

WN2NO 79.8¢Risks 79.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +79.85u · WN2 −79.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:19+00:00	28.5%	12.5%	11.8%	74.6%	56.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	28.5%	12.5%	18.8%	74.6%	56.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	28.5%	12.5%	18.8%	74.6%	56.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	28.5%	12.5%	18.8%	74.6%	56.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	28.5%	12.5%	18.8%	74.6%	56.8%
2026-10-13T08:04:12+00:00	31.9%	12.5%	18.8%	66.5%	52.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	31.9%	12.5%	18.8%	66.5%	52.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	31.9%	12.5%	18.8%	66.5%	52.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	31.9%	12.5%	18.8%	66.5%	52.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	31.9%	11.1%	11.4%	66.5%	52.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:42+00:00	31.9%	11.1%	11.4%	66.5%	52.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	31.9%	11.1%	11.4%	66.5%	52.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	31.9%	11.1%	11.4%	66.5%	52.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	29.2%	11.1%	11.5%	66.5%	53.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	29.2%	11.1%	11.5%	66.5%	53.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	29.2%	11.1%	11.5%	66.5%	53.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	29.2%	11.1%	11.5%	66.5%	53.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	29.2%	11.1%	8.1%	66.5%	53.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	29.2%	11.1%	8.1%	66.5%	53.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	29.2%	11.1%	8.1%	66.5%	53.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	29.9%	11.1%	8.1%	66.5%	52.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	29.9%	11.1%	8.1%	66.5%	52.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	29.9%	11.1%	8.1%	66.5%	52.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	29.9%	11.1%	8.1%	66.5%	52.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	29.9%	11.1%	8.1%	64.3%	52.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	29.9%	11.0%	11.1%	64.3%	52.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	29.9%	11.0%	11.1%	64.3%	52.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	29.9%	11.0%	11.1%	64.3%	52.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	22.0%	11.0%	11.1%	64.3%	52.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	22.0%	11.0%	11.1%	64.3%	52.8%
2026-10-14T03:00:02+00:00	22.0%	11.0%	11.1%	64.3%	52.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00	22.0%	11.0%	11.1%	64.3%	52.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	22.0%	11.0%	11.1%	64.3%	52.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	22.0%	11.0%	11.1%	64.3%	52.8%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	22.0%	11.0%	11.1%	64.3%	52.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	22.0%	11.0%	11.1%	64.3%	52.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	10.9%	11.0%	11.1%	64.3%	43.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	10.9%	11.0%	11.1%	64.3%	43.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	10.9%	11.0%	11.1%	64.3%	43.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00	10.9%	11.0%	11.1%	64.3%	43.3%
2026-10-14T10:34:29+00:00	10.9%	11.0%	11.1%	60.3%	43.3%
2026-10-14T11:21:00+00:00	10.9%	44.8%	1.7%	60.3%	43.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	10.9%	44.8%	1.7%	60.3%	43.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	10.9%	44.8%	1.7%	60.3%	43.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	18.2%	44.8%	1.7%	60.3%	43.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	18.3%	44.8%	1.7%	60.3%	43.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00	18.3%	43.7%	1.7%	60.3%	43.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	18.3%	43.7%	1.7%	60.3%	43.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	18.3%	43.7%	1.7%	60.3%	43.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00	18.3%	43.7%	1.6%	60.3%	43.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	18.3%	43.7%	1.6%	60.3%	43.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	18.3%	43.7%	1.6%	60.3%	43.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00	15.7%	43.7%	1.6%	68.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	15.7%	43.7%	1.6%	68.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	15.7%	43.7%	1.6%	68.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	15.7%	43.7%	1.6%	68.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	15.7%	43.7%	1.6%	68.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	15.7%	43.7%	0.9%	68.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	15.7%	43.7%	0.9%	68.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	15.7%	43.7%	0.9%	68.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	14.3%	43.7%	0.9%	68.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	14.3%	43.7%	0.9%	68.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	14.3%	43.7%	0.9%	68.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	14.3%	43.7%	0.9%	68.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T04:48:06+00:00	14.3%	43.7%	0.9%	68.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	14.3%	43.7%	1.3%	68.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	14.3%	43.7%	1.3%	68.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	14.3%	43.7%	1.3%	68.0%	50.0%
2026-10-15T07:50:20+00:00	3.1%	43.7%	1.3%	56.4%	40.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	3.1%	43.7%	1.3%	56.4%	40.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	3.1%	43.7%	1.3%	56.4%	40.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00	3.1%	43.7%	1.3%	56.4%	40.2%
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	3.1%	43.7%	0.3%	56.4%	40.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:34+00:00	3.1%	43.7%	0.3%	56.4%	40.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	3.1%	46.6%	0.3%	56.4%	40.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:35+00:00	3.1%	46.6%	0.3%	56.4%	40.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	8.5%	46.6%	0.3%	56.4%	40.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	8.5%	46.6%	0.3%	56.4%	40.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:36+00:00	8.5%	46.6%	0.3%	56.4%	40.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	8.5%	46.6%	0.3%	56.4%	40.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	8.5%	46.6%	0.8%	56.4%	40.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	8.5%	46.6%	0.8%	56.4%	40.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	8.5%	46.6%	0.8%	56.4%	40.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	8.5%	46.6%	0.8%	56.4%	40.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	10.3%	46.6%	0.8%	61.0%	28.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00	10.3%	46.6%	0.8%	61.0%	28.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	10.3%	46.6%	0.8%	61.0%	28.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	10.3%	46.6%	0.8%	61.0%	28.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	10.3%	46.6%	0.8%	61.0%	28.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	10.3%	46.6%	0.8%	61.0%	28.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	10.3%	46.6%	0.8%	61.0%	28.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	3.9%	46.6%	0.8%	61.0%	28.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	3.9%	46.6%	0.8%	61.0%	28.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	3.9%	46.6%	0.8%	61.0%	28.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	3.9%	46.6%	0.8%	61.0%	28.9%
2026-10-16T04:24:55+00:00	3.9%	46.6%	0.8%	61.0%	28.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	3.9%	46.6%	1.1%	61.0%	28.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	3.9%	46.6%	1.1%	61.0%	28.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	3.9%	46.6%	1.1%	61.0%	28.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	9.9%	46.6%	1.1%	61.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	9.9%	46.6%	1.1%	61.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	9.9%	46.6%	1.1%	61.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	9.9%	46.6%	1.1%	61.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	9.9%	46.6%	1.1%	61.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:25+00:00	9.9%	46.7%	0.9%	61.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	9.9%	46.7%	0.9%	61.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	9.9%	46.7%	0.9%	61.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	2.5%	46.7%	0.9%	69.7%	46.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	2.5%	46.7%	0.9%	69.7%	46.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	2.5%	46.7%	0.9%	69.7%	46.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	2.5%	46.7%	0.9%	69.7%	46.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	2.5%	46.7%	0.9%	69.7%	46.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	2.5%	46.7%	1.1%	69.7%	46.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	2.5%	46.7%	1.1%	69.7%	46.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	2.5%	46.7%	1.1%	69.7%	46.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:14+00:00	7.4%	46.7%	1.1%	69.7%	40.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	7.4%	46.7%	1.1%	69.7%	40.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	7.4%	46.7%	1.1%	69.7%	40.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	7.4%	46.7%	1.1%	69.7%	40.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	7.4%	46.7%	1.1%	65.6%	40.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	7.4%	46.7%	1.6%	65.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	7.4%	46.7%	1.6%	65.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	7.4%	46.7%	1.6%	65.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	10.4%	46.7%	1.6%	65.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	10.4%	46.7%	1.6%	65.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	10.4%	46.7%	1.6%	65.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	10.4%	46.7%	1.6%	65.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T04:42:21+00:00	10.4%	46.7%	1.6%	65.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	10.4%	46.7%	2.7%	65.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	10.4%	46.7%	2.7%	65.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	10.4%	46.7%	2.7%	65.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T07:45:00+00:00	10.5%	46.7%	2.7%	44.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	10.5%	46.7%	2.7%	44.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	10.5%	46.7%	2.7%	44.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	10.5%	46.7%	2.7%	44.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	10.5%	46.7%	2.7%	44.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	10.5%	46.5%	3.5%	44.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	10.5%	46.5%	3.5%	44.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	10.5%	46.5%	3.5%	44.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00	4.5%	46.5%	3.5%	44.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	4.5%	46.6%	3.5%	44.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T15:25:13+00:00	4.5%	42.1%	3.5%	44.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	4.5%	42.1%	3.5%	44.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	4.5%	42.1%	1.7%	44.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	4.5%	42.1%	1.7%	44.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	4.5%	42.1%	1.7%	44.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	4.5%	42.1%	1.7%	44.2%	5.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:15+00:00	2.2%	42.1%	1.7%	67.0%	16.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	2.2%	42.1%	1.7%	67.0%	16.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	2.2%	42.1%	1.7%	67.0%	16.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	2.2%	42.1%	1.7%	67.0%	16.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	2.2%	42.1%	0.7%	67.0%	16.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	2.2%	42.1%	0.7%	67.0%	16.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	2.2%	42.1%	0.7%	67.0%	16.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	2.2%	42.1%	0.7%	67.0%	16.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	4.0%	42.1%	0.7%	67.0%	16.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	4.0%	42.1%	0.7%	67.0%	16.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	4.0%	42.1%	0.7%	67.0%	16.8%
2026-10-18T04:14:35+00:00	4.0%	42.1%	0.7%	67.0%	16.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	4.0%	42.1%	0.6%	67.0%	16.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	4.0%	42.1%	0.6%	67.0%	16.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	4.0%	42.1%	0.6%	67.0%	16.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	4.0%	42.1%	0.6%	67.0%	16.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:46+00:00	5.5%	42.1%	0.6%	54.3%	6.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	5.5%	42.1%	0.6%	54.3%	6.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	5.5%	42.1%	0.6%	54.3%	6.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:28+00:00	5.5%	42.1%	0.6%	54.3%	6.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	5.5%	41.7%	0.6%	54.3%	6.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	5.5%	41.7%	0.6%	54.3%	6.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:00	5.5%	41.7%	0.6%	54.3%	6.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	5.5%	41.7%	0.6%	54.3%	6.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	5.2%	41.9%	0.6%	54.3%	6.4%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	5.2%	41.9%	0.6%	54.3%	6.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:37+00:00	5.2%	39.7%	0.6%	54.3%	6.4%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	5.2%	39.7%	0.6%	54.3%	6.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	5.2%	39.7%	0.1%	54.3%	6.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	5.2%	39.7%	0.1%	54.3%	6.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	5.2%	39.7%	0.1%	54.3%	6.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	2.5%	39.7%	0.1%	25.0%	23.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	2.5%	39.7%	0.1%	25.0%	23.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	2.5%	39.7%	0.1%	25.0%	23.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	2.5%	39.7%	0.1%	25.0%	23.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	2.5%	39.7%	0.1%	25.0%	23.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	2.5%	39.7%	0.2%	25.0%	23.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:56+00:00	2.5%	39.7%	0.2%	25.0%	23.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	2.5%	39.7%	0.2%	25.0%	23.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	3.4%	39.7%	0.2%	25.0%	23.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	3.4%	39.7%	0.2%	25.0%	23.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	3.4%	39.7%	0.2%	25.0%	23.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	3.4%	39.7%	0.2%	25.0%	23.2%
2026-10-19T04:31:24+00:00	3.4%	39.7%	0.2%	25.0%	23.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	3.4%	39.7%	0.6%	25.0%	23.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00	3.4%	39.7%	0.6%	25.0%	23.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	3.4%	39.7%	0.6%	25.0%	23.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.3481
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.3125
IFS Ensemble	40%	71.5°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1576
IFS HRES	25%	70.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0625
ICON	23%	69.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0538
AIFS Single	3%	65.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0012
WeatherNext 2	<1%	65.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗