KABQ / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

25%

23%

<1%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 20.2¢Risks 20.15u

WN2NO 79.8¢Risks 79.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +79.85u · WN2 −79.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	38.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	1.1%	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	8.5%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	0.0%	37.4%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	31.1%	46.5%	0.5%	—	22.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	29.1%	14.8%	38.5%	—	22.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	27.7%	22.8%	9.7%	—	22.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	23.6%	25.5%	32.3%	—	17.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	29.3%	36.1%	18.9%	—	20.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	1.4%	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	26.2%	26.9%	29.9%	—	16.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	27.9%	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	15.4%	9.4%	67.0%	—	16.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	39.7%	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	39.4%	1.5%	54.9%	—	15.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	30.8%	14.6%	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	33.0%	11.8%	6.4%	—	14.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	27.9%	26.2%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	7.0%	28.2%	36.1%	0.0%	11.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	34.6%	18.3%	0.0%	—	9.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	18.3%	33.1%	39.6%	0.0%	7.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	31.4%	28.3%	54.8%	—	7.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	10.0%	37.7%	56.2%	—	7.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	34.9%	37.3%	66.3%	—	4.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	33.1%	31.9%	51.3%	46.0%	3.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	25.3%	33.8%	12.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	10.8%	35.8%	3.7%	45.7%	1.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.6%	29.8%	50.0%	—	2.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	29.0%	63.9%	1.0%	0.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.9%	19.2%	67.6%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.3481
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.3125
IFS Ensemble	40%	71.5°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1576
IFS HRES	25%	70.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0625
ICON	23%	69.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0538
AIFS Single	3%	65.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0012
WeatherNext 2	<1%	65.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗