KABQ / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 79°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 14.2¢Risks 14.20u

WN2NO 85.8¢Risks 85.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +85.80u · WN2 −85.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	0.8%	38.8%	33.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	0.8%	38.8%	33.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	0.8%	38.8%	33.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	0.8%	38.8%	33.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	0.8%	38.8%	33.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	0.8%	38.8%	33.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	0.8%	38.8%	33.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	0.8%	38.8%	33.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	0.8%	38.8%	33.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	0.8%	38.8%	33.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	0.8%	38.8%	33.2%
2026-10-13T04:16:20+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	0.8%	38.8%	33.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	1.8%	38.8%	33.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	1.8%	38.8%	33.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	1.8%	38.8%	33.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	1.8%	38.8%	33.2%
2026-10-13T08:04:12+00:00	5.5%	0.4%	1.8%	31.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	5.5%	0.4%	1.8%	31.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	5.5%	0.4%	1.8%	31.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	5.5%	0.4%	1.8%	31.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	5.5%	0.2%	0.6%	31.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:42+00:00	5.5%	0.2%	0.6%	31.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	5.5%	0.2%	0.6%	31.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	5.5%	0.2%	0.6%	31.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	4.7%	0.2%	0.6%	31.3%	22.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	4.7%	0.2%	0.6%	31.3%	22.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	4.7%	0.2%	0.6%	31.3%	22.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	4.7%	0.2%	0.6%	31.3%	22.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	4.7%	0.2%	0.3%	31.3%	22.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	4.7%	0.2%	0.3%	31.3%	22.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	4.7%	0.2%	0.3%	31.3%	22.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	4.8%	0.2%	0.3%	31.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	4.8%	0.2%	0.3%	31.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	4.8%	0.2%	0.3%	31.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	4.8%	0.2%	0.3%	31.3%	21.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	4.8%	0.2%	0.3%	29.2%	21.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	4.8%	0.1%	0.6%	29.2%	21.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	4.8%	0.1%	0.6%	29.2%	21.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	4.8%	0.1%	0.6%	29.2%	21.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	2.8%	0.1%	0.6%	29.2%	21.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	2.8%	0.1%	0.6%	29.2%	21.8%
2026-10-14T03:00:02+00:00	2.8%	0.1%	0.6%	29.2%	21.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00	2.8%	0.1%	0.6%	29.2%	21.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	2.8%	0.1%	0.6%	29.2%	21.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	2.8%	0.1%	0.6%	29.2%	21.8%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	2.8%	0.1%	0.6%	29.2%	21.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	2.8%	0.1%	0.6%	29.2%	21.8%
2026-10-14T11:21:00+00:00	0.7%	4.4%	0.0%	21.8%	11.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	0.7%	4.4%	0.0%	21.8%	11.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	0.7%	4.4%	0.0%	21.8%	11.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	1.7%	4.4%	0.0%	21.8%	11.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	1.7%	4.4%	0.0%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00	1.7%	4.1%	0.0%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	1.7%	4.1%	0.0%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	1.7%	4.1%	0.0%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00	1.7%	4.1%	0.0%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	1.7%	4.1%	0.0%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	1.7%	4.1%	0.0%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00	1.3%	4.1%	0.0%	28.4%	15.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	1.3%	4.1%	0.0%	28.4%	15.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	1.3%	4.1%	0.0%	28.4%	15.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	1.3%	4.1%	0.0%	28.4%	15.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	1.3%	4.1%	0.0%	28.4%	15.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	1.3%	4.1%	0.0%	28.4%	15.6%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	1.3%	4.1%	0.0%	28.4%	15.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	1.3%	4.1%	0.0%	28.4%	15.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	1.1%	4.1%	0.0%	28.4%	15.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	1.1%	4.1%	0.0%	28.4%	15.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	1.1%	4.1%	0.0%	28.4%	15.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	1.1%	4.1%	0.0%	28.4%	15.6%
2026-10-15T04:48:06+00:00	1.1%	4.1%	0.0%	28.4%	15.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	1.1%	4.1%	0.0%	28.4%	15.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	1.1%	4.1%	0.0%	28.4%	15.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	1.1%	4.1%	0.0%	28.4%	15.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	28%	75.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0807
ICON	16%	72.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0243
NWS forecast	11%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.0119
National Blend	7%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0055
IFS Ensemble	4%	71.9°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0017
AIFS Single	1%	67.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	<1%	63.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261019-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 12 · 19:58 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗