KABQ / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

69%

65%

22%

16%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 49.1¢Risks 49.15u

WN2NO 50.8¢Risks 50.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +50.85u · WN2 −50.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	32.2%	65.3%	14.3%	77.1%	14.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:42+00:00	32.2%	65.3%	14.3%	77.1%	14.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	32.2%	65.3%	14.3%	77.1%	14.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	32.2%	65.3%	14.3%	77.1%	14.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	30.3%	65.3%	14.4%	77.1%	14.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	30.3%	65.3%	14.4%	77.1%	14.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	30.3%	65.3%	14.4%	77.1%	14.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	30.3%	65.3%	14.4%	77.1%	14.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	30.3%	65.3%	12.6%	77.1%	14.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	30.3%	65.3%	12.6%	77.1%	14.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	30.3%	65.3%	12.6%	77.1%	14.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	35.4%	65.3%	12.6%	77.1%	68.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	35.4%	65.3%	12.6%	77.1%	68.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	35.4%	65.3%	12.6%	77.1%	68.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	35.4%	65.3%	12.6%	77.1%	68.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	35.4%	65.3%	12.6%	82.0%	68.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	35.4%	65.3%	16.3%	82.0%	68.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	35.4%	65.3%	16.3%	82.0%	68.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	35.4%	65.3%	16.3%	82.0%	68.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	22.2%	65.3%	16.3%	82.0%	68.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	22.2%	65.3%	16.3%	82.0%	68.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	82%	77.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	69%	76.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	72.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	67.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	66.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261020-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 72°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗