KABQ / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

69%

65%

22%

16%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 49.1¢Risks 49.15u

WN2NO 50.8¢Risks 50.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +50.85u · WN2 −50.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	45.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	60.0%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	26.8%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	0.5%	45.3%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	52.1%	48.6%	0.3%	—	34.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	56.6%	25.4%	70.9%	—	37.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	46.2%	62.0%	25.1%	—	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	46.8%	62.5%	60.3%	—	35.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	45.0%	42.5%	72.8%	—	34.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	4.3%	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	61.3%	38.8%	65.4%	—	32.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	51.8%	53.6%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	40.9%	56.4%	62.7%	—	31.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	50.9%	58.5%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	55.8%	51.9%	81.0%	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	62.8%	65.6%	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	55.1%	61.2%	62.2%	0.0%	33.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	51.1%	57.4%	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	64.9%	55.5%	77.0%	—	23.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	47.8%	67.5%	0.0%	—	17.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	44.2%	68.0%	63.7%	0.0%	12.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	40.5%	65.3%	63.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	28.7%	61.1%	53.7%	23.6%	12.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	26.9%	44.9%	61.5%	—	9.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	28.4%	40.7%	54.0%	55.4%	6.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	30.0%	62.3%	59.7%	—	7.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	29.3%	68.2%	80.9%	52.9%	8.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	53.0%	75.2%	—	6.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	82%	77.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	69%	76.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	72.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	67.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	66.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261020-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 72°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗