KABQ / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

39%

11%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 24.3¢Risks 24.25u

WN2NO 75.8¢Risks 75.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +75.75u · WN2 −75.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:00:02+00:00	17.3%	53.6%	11.8%	77.6%	64.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00	17.3%	53.6%	11.8%	77.6%	64.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	17.3%	53.6%	11.8%	77.6%	64.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	17.3%	53.6%	11.8%	77.6%	64.9%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	17.3%	53.6%	11.8%	77.6%	64.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	17.3%	53.6%	11.8%	77.6%	64.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	11.4%	53.6%	11.8%	77.6%	69.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	11.4%	53.6%	11.8%	77.6%	69.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	11.4%	53.6%	11.8%	77.6%	69.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00	11.4%	53.6%	11.8%	77.6%	69.0%
2026-10-14T10:34:29+00:00	11.4%	53.6%	11.8%	71.9%	69.0%
2026-10-14T11:21:00+00:00	11.4%	48.9%	7.5%	71.9%	69.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	11.4%	48.9%	7.5%	71.9%	69.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	11.4%	48.9%	7.5%	71.9%	69.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	15.4%	48.9%	7.5%	71.9%	69.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	16.3%	48.9%	7.8%	71.8%	69.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00	16.3%	47.8%	7.8%	71.8%	69.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	16.3%	47.8%	7.8%	71.8%	69.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	16.3%	47.8%	7.8%	71.8%	69.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00	16.3%	47.8%	5.9%	71.8%	69.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	16.3%	47.8%	5.9%	71.8%	69.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	16.3%	47.8%	5.9%	71.8%	69.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00	13.3%	47.8%	5.9%	80.7%	61.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	13.3%	47.8%	5.9%	80.7%	61.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	13.3%	47.8%	5.9%	80.7%	61.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	13.3%	47.8%	5.9%	80.7%	61.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	13.3%	47.8%	5.9%	80.7%	61.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	13.3%	47.8%	5.0%	80.7%	61.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	13.3%	47.8%	5.0%	80.7%	61.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	13.3%	47.8%	5.0%	80.7%	61.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	14.5%	47.8%	5.0%	80.7%	61.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	14.5%	47.8%	5.0%	80.7%	61.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	14.5%	47.8%	5.0%	80.7%	61.7%
2026-10-16T04:24:55+00:00	10.9%	68.6%	2.2%	65.5%	57.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	10.9%	68.6%	3.1%	65.5%	57.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	10.9%	68.6%	3.1%	65.5%	57.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	10.9%	68.6%	3.1%	65.5%	57.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	7.2%	68.6%	3.1%	65.5%	66.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	7.2%	68.6%	3.1%	65.5%	66.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	7.2%	68.6%	3.1%	65.5%	66.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	7.2%	68.6%	3.1%	65.5%	66.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	7.2%	68.6%	3.1%	65.5%	66.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:25+00:00	7.2%	67.4%	1.3%	65.5%	66.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	7.2%	67.4%	1.3%	65.5%	66.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	7.2%	67.4%	1.3%	65.5%	66.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	11.1%	67.4%	1.3%	64.1%	66.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	11.1%	67.2%	1.3%	64.1%	66.0%
2026-10-20T04:05:27+00:00	14.8%	38.9%	1.5%	46.8%	13.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	14.8%	38.9%	1.5%	46.8%	13.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	14.8%	38.9%	1.7%	46.8%	13.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	14.8%	38.9%	1.7%	46.8%	13.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	14.8%	38.9%	1.7%	46.8%	13.5%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	11.4%	38.9%	1.7%	46.8%	9.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	11.4%	38.9%	1.7%	46.8%	9.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	11.4%	38.9%	1.7%	46.8%	9.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	11.4%	38.9%	1.7%	46.8%	9.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	72.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	71.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	68.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	67.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	66.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗