KABQ / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

39%

11%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 24.3¢Risks 24.25u

WN2NO 75.8¢Risks 75.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +75.75u · WN2 −75.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	55.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	53.8%	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	21.7%	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	0.3%	38.7%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	45.1%	41.6%	0.2%	—	28.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	49.3%	19.9%	64.3%	—	31.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	38.7%	54.6%	19.5%	—	33.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	39.0%	54.8%	52.4%	—	28.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	36.9%	34.5%	65.5%	—	27.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	2.7%	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	52.6%	30.7%	57.0%	—	24.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	42.9%	44.6%	—	—	22.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	32.2%	47.2%	53.7%	—	23.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	41.5%	49.0%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	46.1%	42.3%	73.7%	—	32.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	53.0%	56.0%	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	44.9%	51.0%	52.1%	0.0%	24.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	40.6%	46.8%	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	54.4%	44.5%	67.9%	—	15.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	36.7%	56.7%	0.0%	—	11.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	33.1%	57.0%	52.3%	0.0%	7.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	29.3%	53.6%	51.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	19.1%	48.8%	41.3%	15.1%	7.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	17.4%	32.5%	48.7%	—	4.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	18.2%	28.4%	40.7%	42.0%	3.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	19.1%	48.6%	45.8%	—	3.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	18.2%	54.3%	69.5%	38.6%	4.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	38.1%	61.9%	—	2.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	72.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	71.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	68.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	67.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	66.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗