KABQ / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

11%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 5.3¢Risks 2.67u

WN2NO 94.7¢Risks 47.33u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +47.33u · WN2 −47.33u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:04:13+00:00	6.3%	5.7%	2.5%	41.9%	4.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	6.3%	5.7%	2.5%	41.9%	4.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	6.3%	5.7%	2.5%	41.9%	4.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	6.3%	5.7%	2.5%	41.9%	4.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:25+00:00	6.3%	7.7%	1.1%	41.9%	4.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:42+00:00	6.3%	7.7%	1.1%	41.9%	4.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	6.3%	7.7%	1.1%	41.9%	4.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	6.3%	7.7%	1.1%	41.9%	4.6%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	5.7%	7.7%	1.2%	41.9%	4.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	5.7%	7.7%	1.2%	41.9%	4.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	5.7%	7.7%	1.2%	41.9%	4.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	5.7%	7.7%	1.2%	41.9%	4.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	5.7%	7.7%	0.9%	41.9%	4.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	5.7%	7.7%	0.9%	41.9%	4.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	5.7%	7.7%	0.9%	41.9%	4.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	7.5%	7.7%	0.9%	41.9%	45.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	7.5%	7.7%	0.9%	41.9%	45.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	7.5%	7.7%	0.9%	41.9%	45.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	7.5%	7.7%	0.9%	41.9%	45.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	7.5%	7.7%	0.9%	48.7%	45.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	7.5%	7.7%	1.4%	48.7%	45.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	7.5%	7.7%	1.4%	48.7%	45.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	7.5%	7.7%	1.4%	48.7%	45.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	3.3%	7.7%	1.4%	48.7%	45.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	3.3%	7.7%	1.4%	48.7%	45.2%
2026-10-14T03:00:03+00:00	3.3%	7.7%	1.4%	48.7%	45.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00	3.3%	7.7%	1.4%	48.7%	45.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	3.3%	7.7%	1.4%	48.7%	45.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	3.3%	7.7%	1.4%	48.7%	45.2%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	3.3%	7.7%	1.4%	48.7%	45.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	3.3%	7.7%	1.4%	48.7%	45.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	1.6%	7.7%	1.4%	48.7%	41.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	1.6%	7.7%	1.4%	48.7%	41.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	1.6%	7.7%	1.4%	48.7%	41.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00	1.6%	7.7%	1.4%	48.7%	41.6%
2026-10-14T10:34:29+00:00	1.6%	7.7%	1.4%	42.7%	41.6%
2026-10-14T11:21:00+00:00	1.6%	8.0%	0.6%	42.7%	41.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	1.6%	8.0%	0.6%	42.7%	41.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	1.6%	8.0%	0.6%	42.7%	41.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	2.5%	8.0%	0.6%	42.7%	41.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	2.8%	8.1%	0.6%	42.8%	41.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00	2.8%	7.5%	0.6%	42.8%	41.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	2.8%	7.5%	0.6%	42.8%	41.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	2.8%	7.5%	0.6%	42.8%	41.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:14+00:00	2.8%	7.5%	0.4%	42.8%	41.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	2.8%	7.5%	0.4%	42.8%	41.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	2.8%	7.5%	0.4%	42.8%	41.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00	2.1%	7.5%	0.4%	54.2%	34.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	2.1%	7.5%	0.4%	54.2%	34.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	2.1%	7.5%	0.4%	54.2%	34.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	2.1%	7.5%	0.4%	54.2%	34.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	2.1%	7.5%	0.4%	54.2%	34.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	2.1%	7.6%	0.3%	54.2%	34.1%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	2.1%	7.6%	0.3%	54.2%	34.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	2.1%	7.6%	0.3%	54.2%	34.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	2.4%	7.6%	0.3%	54.2%	34.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	2.4%	7.6%	0.3%	54.2%	34.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	2.4%	7.6%	0.3%	54.2%	34.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:33+00:00	2.4%	7.6%	0.3%	54.2%	34.1%
2026-10-15T04:48:06+00:00	2.4%	7.6%	0.3%	54.2%	34.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	2.4%	7.6%	0.3%	54.2%	34.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	2.4%	7.6%	0.3%	54.2%	34.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	2.4%	7.6%	0.3%	54.2%	34.1%
2026-10-15T07:50:20+00:00	1.1%	7.6%	0.3%	34.5%	26.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	1.1%	7.6%	0.3%	34.5%	26.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	1.1%	7.6%	0.3%	34.5%	26.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00	1.1%	7.6%	0.3%	34.5%	26.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	1.1%	7.6%	0.0%	34.5%	26.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:34+00:00	1.1%	7.6%	0.0%	34.5%	26.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	1.1%	18.0%	0.0%	34.5%	26.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:35+00:00	1.1%	18.0%	0.0%	34.5%	26.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	1.6%	18.0%	0.0%	34.5%	26.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	1.6%	18.0%	0.0%	34.5%	26.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:36+00:00	1.6%	17.3%	0.0%	34.5%	26.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	1.6%	17.3%	0.0%	34.5%	26.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	1.6%	17.3%	0.1%	34.5%	26.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	1.6%	17.3%	0.1%	34.5%	26.8%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	1.6%	17.3%	0.1%	34.5%	26.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	1.6%	17.3%	0.1%	34.5%	26.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	1.6%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	25.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00	1.6%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	25.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	1.6%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	25.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	1.6%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	25.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	1.6%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	25.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	1.5%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	25.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	1.5%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	25.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	1.3%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	25.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	1.3%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	25.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	1.3%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	25.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	1.3%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	25.7%
2026-10-16T04:24:55+00:00	1.3%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	25.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	1.3%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	25.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	1.3%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	25.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	1.3%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	25.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	0.5%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	26.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	0.5%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	26.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	0.5%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	26.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	0.5%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	26.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	0.5%	17.3%	0.1%	32.0%	26.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:25+00:00	0.5%	16.9%	0.0%	32.0%	26.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	0.5%	16.9%	0.0%	32.0%	26.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	0.5%	16.9%	0.0%	32.0%	26.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	1.0%	16.9%	0.0%	26.1%	26.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	1.0%	17.2%	0.0%	26.1%	26.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	1.0%	16.5%	0.0%	26.1%	26.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	1.0%	16.5%	0.0%	26.1%	26.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	1.0%	16.5%	0.0%	26.1%	26.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	1.0%	16.5%	0.1%	26.1%	26.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	1.0%	16.5%	0.1%	26.1%	26.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	1.0%	16.5%	0.1%	26.1%	26.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:14+00:00	1.9%	16.5%	0.1%	26.1%	13.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	1.9%	16.5%	0.1%	26.1%	13.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	1.9%	16.5%	0.1%	26.1%	13.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	1.9%	16.5%	0.1%	26.1%	13.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	1.9%	16.5%	0.1%	28.1%	13.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	1.9%	16.5%	0.2%	28.1%	13.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	1.9%	16.5%	0.2%	28.1%	13.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	1.9%	16.5%	0.2%	28.1%	13.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	1.7%	16.5%	0.2%	28.1%	13.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	1.7%	16.5%	0.2%	28.1%	13.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	1.7%	16.5%	0.2%	28.1%	13.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	1.7%	16.5%	0.2%	28.1%	13.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:21+00:00	1.7%	16.5%	0.2%	28.1%	13.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	1.7%	16.5%	0.6%	28.1%	13.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	1.7%	16.5%	0.6%	28.1%	13.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	1.7%	16.5%	0.6%	28.1%	13.8%
2026-10-17T07:45:00+00:00	2.4%	16.5%	0.6%	44.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	2.4%	16.5%	0.6%	44.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	2.4%	16.5%	0.6%	44.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	2.4%	16.5%	0.6%	44.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	2.4%	16.5%	0.6%	44.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	2.4%	20.9%	0.2%	44.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	2.4%	20.9%	0.2%	44.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	2.4%	20.9%	0.2%	44.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00	2.2%	20.9%	0.2%	44.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	2.2%	21.3%	0.2%	44.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T15:25:13+00:00	2.2%	17.8%	0.2%	44.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	2.2%	17.8%	0.2%	44.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	2.2%	17.8%	0.1%	44.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	2.2%	17.8%	0.1%	44.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	2.2%	17.8%	0.1%	44.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	2.2%	17.8%	0.1%	44.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:15+00:00	2.1%	17.8%	0.1%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	2.1%	17.8%	0.1%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	2.1%	17.8%	0.1%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	2.1%	17.8%	0.1%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	2.1%	17.8%	0.1%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	2.1%	17.8%	0.1%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	2.1%	17.8%	0.1%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	2.1%	17.8%	0.1%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	2.1%	17.8%	0.1%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	2.1%	17.8%	0.1%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	2.1%	17.8%	0.1%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:35+00:00	2.1%	17.8%	0.1%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	2.1%	17.8%	0.1%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	2.1%	17.8%	0.1%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	2.1%	17.8%	0.1%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	2.1%	17.8%	0.1%	31.1%	11.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:46+00:00	1.5%	17.8%	0.1%	23.2%	8.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	1.5%	17.8%	0.1%	23.2%	8.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	1.5%	17.8%	0.1%	23.2%	8.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:28+00:00	1.5%	17.8%	0.1%	23.2%	8.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	1.5%	9.0%	0.0%	23.2%	8.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	1.5%	9.0%	0.0%	23.2%	8.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00	1.5%	9.0%	0.0%	23.2%	8.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	1.5%	9.0%	0.0%	23.2%	8.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	1.7%	9.4%	0.0%	23.2%	8.4%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	1.7%	9.4%	0.0%	23.2%	8.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:37+00:00	1.7%	8.1%	0.0%	23.2%	8.4%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	1.7%	8.1%	0.0%	23.2%	8.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	1.7%	8.1%	0.0%	23.2%	8.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	1.7%	8.1%	0.0%	23.2%	8.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	1.7%	8.1%	0.0%	23.2%	8.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	1.5%	8.1%	0.0%	10.7%	2.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	1.5%	8.1%	0.0%	10.7%	2.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	1.5%	8.1%	0.0%	10.7%	2.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	1.5%	8.1%	0.0%	10.7%	2.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	1.5%	8.1%	0.0%	10.7%	2.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	1.5%	8.1%	0.0%	10.7%	2.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:56+00:00	1.5%	8.1%	0.0%	10.7%	2.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	1.5%	8.1%	0.0%	10.7%	2.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	0.9%	8.1%	0.0%	10.7%	2.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	0.9%	8.1%	0.0%	10.7%	2.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	0.9%	8.1%	0.0%	10.7%	2.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	0.9%	8.1%	0.0%	10.7%	2.8%
2026-10-19T04:31:24+00:00	0.9%	8.1%	0.0%	10.7%	2.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	0.9%	8.1%	0.0%	10.7%	2.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00	0.9%	8.1%	0.0%	10.7%	2.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	0.9%	8.1%	0.0%	10.7%	2.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	21%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	72.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	72.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	3%	70.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	67.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	66.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗