KABQ / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

11%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 5.3¢Risks 2.67u

WN2NO 94.7¢Risks 47.33u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +47.33u · WN2 −47.33u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	24.4%	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	5.5%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.0%	12.8%	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	15.8%	13.7%	0.0%	—	7.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	17.5%	3.9%	29.1%	—	7.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	23.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	10.7%	20.0%	3.5%	—	8.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	10.0%	18.9%	17.4%	—	5.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	8.3%	7.4%	25.8%	—	4.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	15.1%	5.4%	17.8%	—	3.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.6%	10.3%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.3%	11.0%	14.4%	—	3.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	8.1%	11.3%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	9.4%	7.9%	27.9%	—	4.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	11.9%	13.5%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	7.8%	10.3%	10.8%	0.0%	2.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.8%	8.0%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	10.4%	6.6%	18.3%	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.0%	10.7%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.9%	10.0%	8.1%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.0%	7.8%	7.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	5.5%	3.7%	0.5%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	1.9%	4.9%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	1.2%	2.8%	3.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	3.7%	3.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	4.4%	9.5%	1.8%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.4%	5.6%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	21%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	72.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	72.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	3%	70.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	67.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	66.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗