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KABQ / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
95%
EPS
86%
AIFS
36%
ICON
36%
WN2
34%
Consensus
67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 64.4¢Risks 64.40u
VS
WN2NO 35.6¢Risks 35.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +35.60u · WN2 −35.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 36.1% · 2026-10-14T10:34:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.1% · 2026-10-14T10:34:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.5% · 2026-10-14T10:34:29+00:00IFS HRES: 95.3% · 2026-10-14T10:34:29+00:00ICON: 35.8% · 2026-10-14T10:34:29+00:0010-14 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

One recorded snapshot. Additional runs will extend this chart.

2026-10-14T10:34:29+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T10:34:29+00:0036.1%86.1%33.5%95.3%35.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES95%80.1°F6.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble86%73.3°F3.5°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
National Blend55%70.0°F4.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single36%67.5°F5.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON36%65.9°F9.9°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 234%67.2°F5.4°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261021-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 70°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗