KABQ / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

86%

36%

36%

34%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 64.4¢Risks 64.40u

WN2NO 35.6¢Risks 35.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +35.60u · WN2 −35.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	33.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	27.3%	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	30.6%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	8.5%	39.3%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	63.8%	34.3%	1.6%	—	57.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	81.6%	72.8%	25.4%	—	49.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	64.2%	69.7%	19.5%	—	45.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	61.0%	62.5%	11.5%	—	42.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	63.1%	40.1%	17.8%	—	45.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	68.2%	28.8%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	87.4%	57.8%	74.5%	—	70.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	94.0%	41.1%	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	92.4%	50.0%	98.8%	—	71.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	85.7%	84.6%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	94.1%	54.9%	93.5%	—	72.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	95.8%	65.6%	—	—	70.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	81.0%	77.3%	99.5%	—	72.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	93.2%	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	97.6%	82.4%	99.8%	—	70.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	96.0%	95.8%	0.3%	—	67.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	94.6%	90.6%	99.8%	0.0%	65.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	96.3%	96.5%	99.9%	—	72.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	96.7%	89.4%	99.9%	98.8%	81.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	98.7%	99.9%	—	82.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	80.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	73.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	70.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	67.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	36%	65.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	67.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261021-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 70°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗