KABQ / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

79%

73%

42%

40%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.5¢Risks 62.55u

AIFSNO 37.5¢Risks 37.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.45u · AIFS −37.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:33+00:00	13.9%	65.3%	14.5%	81.6%	64.1%
2026-10-15T04:48:06+00:00	13.9%	65.3%	14.5%	81.6%	64.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	13.9%	65.3%	14.5%	81.6%	64.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	13.9%	65.3%	14.5%	81.6%	64.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	13.9%	65.3%	14.5%	81.6%	64.1%
2026-10-15T07:50:20+00:00	16.7%	65.3%	14.5%	35.2%	78.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	16.7%	65.3%	14.5%	35.2%	78.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	16.7%	65.3%	14.5%	35.2%	78.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00	16.7%	65.3%	14.5%	35.2%	78.2%
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	16.7%	65.3%	7.0%	35.2%	78.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:34+00:00	16.7%	65.3%	7.0%	35.2%	78.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	16.7%	61.9%	7.0%	35.2%	78.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:35+00:00	16.7%	61.9%	7.0%	35.2%	78.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	10.0%	61.8%	7.0%	35.2%	78.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	10.0%	61.8%	7.0%	35.2%	78.1%
2026-10-16T04:24:55+00:00	21.8%	61.0%	10.7%	82.2%	63.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	21.8%	61.0%	16.2%	82.2%	63.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	21.8%	61.0%	16.2%	82.2%	63.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	21.8%	61.0%	16.2%	82.2%	63.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	12.9%	61.0%	16.2%	82.2%	57.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	12.9%	61.0%	16.2%	82.2%	57.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	12.9%	61.0%	16.2%	82.2%	57.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	12.9%	61.0%	16.2%	82.2%	57.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	12.9%	61.0%	16.2%	82.2%	57.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:25+00:00	12.9%	71.0%	9.4%	82.2%	57.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	12.9%	71.0%	9.4%	82.2%	57.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	12.9%	71.0%	9.4%	82.2%	57.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	22.8%	71.0%	9.4%	45.2%	57.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	22.8%	71.0%	9.4%	45.2%	57.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	22.8%	71.0%	9.4%	45.2%	57.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	22.8%	71.0%	9.4%	45.2%	57.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	22.8%	71.0%	9.4%	45.2%	57.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	22.8%	71.0%	15.3%	45.2%	57.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	22.8%	71.0%	15.3%	45.2%	57.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	22.8%	71.0%	15.3%	45.2%	57.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:14+00:00	26.6%	71.0%	15.3%	45.2%	58.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	26.6%	71.0%	15.3%	45.2%	58.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	26.6%	71.0%	15.3%	45.2%	58.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	26.6%	71.0%	15.3%	45.2%	58.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	26.6%	71.0%	15.3%	57.5%	58.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	26.6%	71.0%	21.1%	57.5%	58.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	26.6%	71.0%	21.1%	57.5%	58.5%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	26.6%	71.0%	21.1%	57.5%	58.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	25.3%	71.0%	21.1%	57.5%	58.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	25.3%	71.0%	21.1%	57.5%	58.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	25.3%	71.0%	21.1%	57.5%	58.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	25.3%	71.0%	21.1%	57.5%	58.5%
2026-10-17T04:42:21+00:00	25.3%	71.0%	21.1%	57.5%	58.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	25.3%	71.0%	28.8%	57.5%	58.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	25.3%	71.0%	28.8%	57.5%	58.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	25.3%	71.0%	28.8%	57.5%	58.5%
2026-10-17T07:45:00+00:00	41.4%	71.0%	28.8%	72.6%	78.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	41.4%	71.0%	28.8%	72.6%	78.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	41.4%	71.0%	28.8%	72.6%	78.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	41.4%	71.0%	28.8%	72.6%	78.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	41.4%	71.0%	28.8%	72.6%	78.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	41.4%	85.4%	41.5%	72.6%	78.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	41.4%	85.4%	41.5%	72.6%	78.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	41.4%	85.4%	41.5%	72.6%	78.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00	39.7%	85.4%	41.5%	72.6%	78.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	39.7%	85.4%	41.5%	72.6%	78.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	85%	76.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	79%	76.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	75.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	71.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	71.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗