KABQ / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

79%

73%

42%

40%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.5¢Risks 62.55u

AIFSNO 37.5¢Risks 37.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.45u · AIFS −37.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	20.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	14.8%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	16.0%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	3.0%	21.8%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	43.0%	17.5%	0.4%	—	36.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	63.6%	52.2%	11.3%	—	28.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	41.7%	47.7%	7.6%	—	24.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	62.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	37.5%	39.0%	3.6%	—	21.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	38.5%	18.9%	6.1%	—	22.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	43.2%	11.5%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	68.6%	32.2%	50.0%	—	44.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	81.0%	18.4%	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	77.0%	24.4%	93.9%	—	44.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	63.9%	62.1%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	79.7%	27.1%	78.2%	—	44.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	83.6%	36.3%	—	—	41.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	54.1%	49.0%	96.7%	—	42.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	75.5%	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	87.5%	54.4%	97.9%	—	39.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	81.7%	81.0%	0.0%	—	34.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	76.7%	66.9%	98.1%	0.0%	32.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	80.9%	81.7%	98.5%	—	38.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	81.8%	62.3%	98.8%	90.5%	48.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	89.7%	98.4%	—	48.7%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	76.0%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	85%	76.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	79%	76.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	75.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	71.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	71.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗