KABQ / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

66%

26%

18%

18%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 45.1¢Risks 45.15u

HRESNO 54.9¢Risks 54.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +54.85u · HRES −54.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:36+00:00	4.9%	42.6%	2.8%	24.8%	68.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	4.9%	42.6%	2.8%	24.8%	68.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	4.9%	42.6%	5.7%	24.8%	68.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	4.9%	42.6%	5.7%	24.8%	68.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	4.9%	42.6%	5.7%	24.8%	68.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	4.9%	42.6%	5.7%	24.8%	68.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	6.6%	42.6%	5.7%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00	6.6%	42.6%	5.7%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	6.6%	42.6%	5.7%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	6.6%	42.6%	5.7%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	6.6%	42.6%	4.7%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	6.6%	42.6%	4.7%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	6.6%	42.6%	4.7%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	12.5%	42.6%	4.7%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	12.5%	42.6%	4.7%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	12.5%	42.6%	4.7%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	12.5%	42.6%	4.7%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-17T15:25:13+00:00	24.3%	65.7%	22.6%	57.9%	65.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	24.3%	65.7%	22.6%	57.9%	65.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	24.3%	65.7%	18.8%	57.9%	65.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	24.3%	65.7%	18.8%	57.9%	65.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	24.3%	65.7%	18.8%	57.9%	65.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	24.3%	65.7%	18.8%	57.9%	65.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:15+00:00	25.7%	65.7%	18.8%	17.9%	72.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	25.7%	65.7%	18.8%	17.9%	72.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	25.7%	65.7%	18.8%	17.9%	72.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	25.7%	65.7%	18.8%	17.9%	72.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	25.7%	65.7%	18.1%	17.9%	72.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	25.7%	65.7%	18.1%	17.9%	72.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	25.7%	65.7%	18.1%	17.9%	72.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	25.7%	65.7%	18.1%	17.9%	72.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	25.7%	65.7%	18.1%	17.9%	72.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	25.7%	65.7%	18.1%	17.9%	72.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	25.7%	65.7%	18.1%	17.9%	72.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	72%	77.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	76.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	71.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	71.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	69.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗