KABQ / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

66%

26%

18%

18%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 45.1¢Risks 45.15u

HRESNO 54.9¢Risks 54.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +54.85u · HRES −54.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	9.0%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	9.3%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	1.3%	13.2%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	29.8%	9.9%	0.1%	—	24.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	49.3%	37.8%	5.7%	—	17.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	27.7%	33.0%	3.5%	—	14.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	23.6%	24.8%	1.4%	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	23.8%	9.7%	2.5%	—	12.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	27.4%	5.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	51.7%	18.4%	33.0%	—	28.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	66.6%	8.8%	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	60.9%	12.4%	86.1%	—	27.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	45.3%	43.4%	—	—	27.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	63.4%	13.6%	61.5%	—	26.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	68.3%	19.7%	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	34.0%	29.4%	90.6%	—	24.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	56.3%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	72.7%	33.1%	93.0%	—	20.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	63.3%	62.2%	0.0%	—	16.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	55.8%	44.2%	93.2%	0.0%	14.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	60.7%	61.9%	94.2%	—	18.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	61.1%	37.7%	94.8%	75.4%	25.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	73.1%	93.2%	—	24.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	72%	77.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	76.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	71.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	71.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	69.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗