KABQ / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

84%

64%

35%

13%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 54.9¢Risks 54.85u

AIFSNO 45.1¢Risks 45.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.15u · AIFS −45.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:20+00:00	16.8%	83.6%	18.7%	65.3%	32.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	16.8%	83.6%	18.7%	65.3%	32.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	16.8%	83.6%	18.7%	65.3%	32.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00	16.8%	83.6%	18.7%	65.3%	32.5%
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	16.8%	83.6%	19.5%	65.3%	32.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:34+00:00	16.8%	83.6%	19.5%	65.3%	32.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	16.8%	83.7%	19.5%	65.3%	32.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:35+00:00	16.8%	83.7%	19.5%	65.3%	32.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	11.3%	83.7%	19.9%	65.2%	32.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	11.3%	83.7%	19.9%	65.2%	32.5%
2026-10-15T15:34:38+00:00	11.3%	83.7%	19.9%	65.2%	32.5%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	11.3%	83.7%	19.9%	65.2%	32.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	11.3%	83.7%	34.0%	65.2%	32.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	11.3%	83.7%	34.0%	65.2%	32.5%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	11.3%	83.7%	34.0%	65.2%	32.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	11.3%	83.7%	34.0%	65.2%	32.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	11.6%	83.7%	34.0%	97.0%	64.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00	11.6%	83.7%	34.0%	97.0%	64.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	11.6%	83.7%	34.0%	97.0%	64.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	11.6%	83.7%	34.0%	97.0%	64.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	11.6%	83.7%	34.7%	97.0%	64.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	11.7%	83.7%	34.7%	97.0%	64.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	11.7%	83.7%	34.7%	97.0%	64.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	12.7%	83.7%	34.7%	97.0%	64.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	12.7%	83.7%	34.7%	97.0%	64.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	12.7%	83.7%	34.7%	97.0%	64.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	12.7%	83.7%	34.7%	97.0%	64.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	97%	80.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	73.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	64%	72.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	69.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	66.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	62.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗