KABQ / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

84%

64%

35%

13%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 54.9¢Risks 54.85u

AIFSNO 45.1¢Risks 45.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.15u · AIFS −45.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	78.5%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	68.8%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	6.2%	70.6%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	43.0%	55.6%	3.3%	—	48.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	46.4%	67.0%	52.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	38.7%	60.6%	35.8%	—	47.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	81.1%	50.8%	70.5%	—	74.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	39.5%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	93.4%	25.1%	98.9%	—	79.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.4%	32.6%	35.8%	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	97.2%	18.4%	92.7%	—	72.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	61.5%	22.9%	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	19.0%	22.3%	99.0%	—	68.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	23.1%	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	43.2%	26.3%	99.4%	—	72.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	50.0%	94.0%	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	30.3%	96.7%	99.7%	—	61.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	67.4%	91.6%	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	72.7%	84.5%	99.8%	99.6%	59.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	67.5%	10.2%	—	81.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	97%	80.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	73.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	64%	72.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	69.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	66.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	62.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗