KABQ / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

51%

48%

44%

28%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.8¢Risks 46.80u

AIFSNO 53.2¢Risks 53.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.20u · AIFS −53.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:55+00:00	6.8%	72.7%	21.6%	94.2%	56.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	6.8%	72.7%	23.9%	94.2%	56.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	6.8%	72.7%	23.9%	94.2%	56.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	6.8%	72.7%	23.9%	94.2%	56.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	8.2%	72.7%	23.9%	94.2%	56.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	8.2%	72.7%	23.9%	94.2%	56.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	8.2%	72.7%	23.9%	94.2%	56.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	8.2%	72.7%	23.9%	94.2%	56.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	8.2%	72.7%	23.9%	94.2%	56.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:25+00:00	8.2%	65.0%	19.0%	94.2%	56.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	8.2%	65.0%	19.0%	94.2%	56.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	8.2%	65.0%	19.0%	94.2%	56.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	21.8%	65.0%	19.0%	53.6%	56.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	21.9%	65.0%	19.0%	53.6%	56.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	21.9%	65.3%	19.0%	53.6%	56.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	21.9%	65.3%	19.0%	53.6%	56.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	21.9%	65.3%	19.0%	53.6%	56.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	21.9%	65.3%	46.6%	53.6%	56.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	21.9%	65.3%	46.6%	53.6%	56.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	21.9%	65.3%	46.6%	53.6%	56.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:14+00:00	19.2%	65.3%	46.6%	53.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	19.2%	65.3%	46.6%	53.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	19.2%	65.3%	46.6%	53.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	19.2%	65.3%	46.6%	53.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	19.2%	65.3%	46.6%	47.6%	51.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	19.2%	65.3%	44.0%	47.6%	51.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	19.2%	65.3%	44.0%	47.6%	51.1%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	19.2%	65.3%	44.0%	47.6%	51.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	28.3%	65.3%	44.0%	47.6%	51.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	28.3%	65.3%	44.0%	47.6%	51.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	28.3%	65.3%	44.0%	47.6%	51.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	28.3%	65.3%	44.0%	47.6%	51.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	65%	72.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
ICON	51%	70.7°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	70.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	70.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	69.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	67.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗