KABQ / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

51%

48%

44%

28%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.8¢Risks 46.80u

AIFSNO 53.2¢Risks 53.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.20u · AIFS −53.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	68.2%	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	56.5%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	3.0%	58.1%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	29.8%	41.6%	1.4%	—	34.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	32.3%	52.9%	38.5%	—	35.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	25.1%	45.4%	22.8%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	68.4%	35.2%	55.6%	—	60.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	25.0%	—	—	53.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	86.2%	13.8%	96.9%	—	66.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	19.0%	21.4%	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	93.0%	9.0%	84.4%	—	56.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	43.7%	11.6%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	9.0%	11.0%	97.0%	—	50.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	11.3%	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	25.5%	13.1%	98.0%	—	54.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	30.8%	85.4%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	15.1%	90.6%	98.6%	—	40.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	46.8%	80.2%	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	52.2%	67.9%	98.9%	98.3%	38.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	45.5%	3.3%	—	62.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	65%	72.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
ICON	51%	70.7°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	70.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	70.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	69.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	67.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗