KABQ / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

82%

74%

54%

51%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 67.1¢Risks 67.10u

WN2NO 32.9¢Risks 32.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +32.90u · WN2 −32.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:21+00:00	17.3%	50.0%	28.2%	35.8%	40.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	17.3%	50.0%	40.7%	35.8%	40.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	17.3%	50.0%	40.7%	35.8%	40.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	17.3%	50.0%	40.7%	35.8%	40.0%
2026-10-17T07:45:00+00:00	49.2%	50.0%	40.7%	60.2%	69.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	49.2%	50.0%	40.7%	60.2%	69.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	49.2%	50.0%	40.7%	60.2%	69.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	49.2%	50.0%	40.7%	60.2%	69.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	49.2%	50.0%	40.7%	60.2%	69.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	49.2%	83.1%	45.2%	60.2%	69.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	49.2%	83.1%	45.2%	60.2%	69.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	49.2%	83.1%	45.2%	60.2%	69.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00	46.0%	83.1%	45.2%	60.2%	69.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	46.0%	83.1%	45.2%	60.2%	69.4%
2026-10-17T15:25:13+00:00	46.0%	81.7%	45.2%	60.2%	69.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	46.0%	81.7%	45.2%	60.2%	69.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	46.0%	81.7%	36.7%	60.2%	69.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	46.0%	81.7%	36.7%	60.2%	69.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	46.0%	81.7%	36.7%	60.2%	69.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	46.0%	81.7%	36.7%	60.2%	69.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:15+00:00	55.6%	81.7%	36.7%	73.9%	83.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	55.6%	81.7%	36.7%	73.9%	83.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	55.6%	81.7%	36.7%	73.9%	83.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	55.6%	81.7%	36.7%	73.9%	83.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	55.6%	81.7%	51.0%	73.9%	83.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	55.6%	81.7%	51.0%	73.9%	83.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	55.6%	81.7%	51.0%	73.9%	83.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	55.6%	81.7%	51.0%	73.9%	83.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	54.0%	81.7%	51.0%	73.9%	83.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	54.0%	81.7%	51.0%	73.9%	83.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	54.0%	81.7%	51.0%	73.9%	83.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	83%	78.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	76.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	76.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	73.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗