KABQ / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

82%

74%

54%

51%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 67.1¢Risks 67.10u

WN2NO 32.9¢Risks 32.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +32.90u · WN2 −32.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	56.3%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	43.5%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.3%	44.6%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	18.9%	28.6%	0.6%	—	23.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	20.4%	38.5%	25.4%	—	23.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	14.6%	30.9%	12.9%	—	20.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	53.2%	21.8%	39.7%	—	44.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	13.9%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	74.9%	6.6%	92.6%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	9.5%	11.1%	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	84.9%	3.8%	71.6%	—	38.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	27.1%	5.0%	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	3.6%	4.6%	92.1%	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	4.6%	9.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	12.6%	5.4%	94.1%	—	35.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	15.8%	70.9%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	6.1%	78.8%	95.3%	—	22.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	27.1%	62.5%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	31.1%	46.7%	96.0%	94.1%	19.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	24.9%	0.8%	—	40.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	83%	78.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	76.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	76.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	73.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗