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KABQ / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
62%
EPS
61%
WN2
16%
AIFS
16%
ICON
3%
Consensus
30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 32.5¢Risks 32.45u
VS
ICONNO 67.5¢Risks 67.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +67.55u · ICON −67.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 18.0% · 2026-10-19T15:13:50+00:00AIFS Single: 18.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00AIFS Single: 18.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00AIFS Single: 18.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 18.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00AIFS Single: 18.0% · 2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T15:13:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.0% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.0% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.0% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.0% · 2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.0% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.0% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.6% · 2026-10-19T15:13:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.6% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.6% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.0% · 2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.0% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.3% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T15:13:50+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00IFS HRES: 68.1% · 2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-10-19T15:13:50+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:0010-19 15:1310-19 21:1510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T15:13:50+00:0018.0%61.0%15.6%68.1%6.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:0018.0%61.0%15.6%68.1%6.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:0018.0%61.0%15.6%68.1%6.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:0018.0%61.0%17.0%68.1%6.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:0018.0%61.0%17.0%68.1%6.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:0018.0%61.0%17.0%68.1%6.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:0011.1%61.0%17.0%61.5%3.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:0011.1%61.0%17.0%61.5%3.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:0011.1%61.0%17.0%61.5%3.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:0011.1%61.0%17.0%61.5%3.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:0011.1%61.0%17.0%61.5%3.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:0011.1%61.0%16.3%61.5%3.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:0011.1%61.0%16.3%61.5%3.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:0011.1%61.0%16.3%61.5%3.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:0015.6%61.0%16.3%61.5%3.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:0015.6%61.0%16.3%61.5%3.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:0015.6%61.0%16.3%61.5%3.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES62%75.8°F4.5°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble61%75.8°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend56%75.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast55%75.0°F3.9°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
WeatherNext 216%71.2°F3.4°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
AIFS Single16%70.2°F4.3°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
ICON3%67.2°F4.0°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗