KABQ / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

61%

16%

16%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 32.5¢Risks 32.45u

ICONNO 67.5¢Risks 67.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +67.55u · ICON −67.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	4.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	43.7%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	31.2%	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.5%	31.8%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	10.9%	18.0%	0.2%	—	13.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	11.7%	25.4%	15.2%	—	13.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	7.6%	18.9%	6.5%	—	11.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	37.5%	11.9%	25.5%	—	29.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	6.8%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	59.9%	2.7%	84.8%	—	33.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	4.1%	4.9%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	72.4%	1.3%	55.2%	—	23.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	14.5%	1.8%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.2%	1.6%	82.8%	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	1.5%	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	5.1%	1.8%	85.8%	—	19.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	6.6%	52.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.9%	61.2%	87.7%	—	10.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	12.7%	41.6%	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	14.9%	26.4%	88.6%	84.5%	8.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	10.7%	0.1%	—	20.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	62%	75.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	61%	75.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	71.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	70.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	3%	67.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗