KABQ / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 23.3¢Risks 23.30u

WN2NO 76.7¢Risks 76.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +76.70u · WN2 −76.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:21+00:00	0.9%	23.5%	0.9%	19.3%	10.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	0.9%	23.5%	0.9%	19.3%	10.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	0.9%	23.5%	0.9%	19.3%	10.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00	0.9%	23.5%	0.9%	19.3%	10.4%
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	0.9%	23.5%	0.7%	19.3%	10.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:34+00:00	0.9%	23.5%	0.7%	19.3%	10.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	0.9%	30.9%	0.7%	19.3%	10.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:35+00:00	0.9%	30.9%	0.7%	19.3%	10.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	0.4%	30.9%	0.8%	19.5%	10.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	0.4%	30.9%	0.8%	19.5%	10.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:38+00:00	0.4%	29.9%	0.8%	19.5%	10.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	0.4%	29.9%	0.8%	19.5%	10.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	0.4%	29.9%	2.3%	19.5%	10.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	0.4%	29.9%	2.3%	19.5%	10.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	0.4%	29.9%	2.3%	19.5%	10.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	0.4%	29.9%	2.3%	19.5%	10.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	0.5%	29.9%	2.3%	73.9%	32.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00	0.5%	29.9%	2.3%	73.9%	32.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	0.5%	29.9%	2.3%	73.9%	32.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	0.5%	29.9%	2.3%	73.9%	32.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	0.5%	29.9%	2.5%	73.9%	32.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	0.5%	29.9%	2.5%	73.8%	32.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	0.5%	29.9%	2.5%	73.8%	32.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	0.6%	29.9%	2.5%	73.8%	32.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	0.6%	29.9%	2.5%	73.8%	32.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	0.6%	29.9%	2.5%	73.8%	32.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	0.6%	29.9%	2.5%	73.8%	32.9%
2026-10-16T04:24:57+00:00	0.6%	29.9%	2.5%	73.8%	32.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	0.6%	29.9%	2.9%	73.8%	32.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	0.6%	29.9%	2.9%	73.8%	32.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	0.6%	29.9%	2.9%	73.8%	32.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	0.6%	29.9%	2.9%	73.8%	24.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	0.6%	29.9%	2.9%	73.8%	24.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	0.6%	29.9%	2.9%	73.8%	24.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	0.6%	29.9%	2.9%	73.8%	24.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	0.6%	29.9%	2.9%	73.8%	24.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:25+00:00	0.6%	22.0%	1.5%	73.8%	24.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	0.6%	22.0%	1.5%	73.8%	24.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	0.6%	22.0%	1.5%	73.8%	24.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	2.9%	22.0%	1.5%	20.7%	24.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	3.0%	22.0%	1.5%	20.7%	25.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	3.0%	21.6%	1.5%	20.7%	25.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	3.0%	21.6%	1.5%	20.7%	25.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	3.0%	21.6%	1.5%	20.7%	25.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	3.0%	21.6%	8.5%	20.7%	25.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	3.0%	21.6%	8.5%	20.7%	25.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	3.0%	21.6%	8.5%	20.7%	25.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:14+00:00	2.4%	21.6%	8.5%	20.7%	20.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	2.4%	21.6%	8.5%	20.7%	20.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	2.4%	21.6%	8.5%	20.7%	20.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	2.4%	21.6%	8.5%	20.7%	20.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	2.4%	21.6%	8.5%	16.6%	20.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	2.4%	21.6%	7.6%	16.6%	20.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	2.4%	21.6%	7.6%	16.6%	20.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	2.4%	21.6%	7.6%	16.6%	20.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	4.6%	21.6%	7.6%	16.6%	20.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	4.6%	21.6%	7.6%	16.6%	20.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	4.6%	21.6%	7.6%	16.6%	20.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	4.6%	21.6%	7.6%	16.6%	20.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:22+00:00	4.6%	21.6%	7.6%	16.6%	20.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	4.6%	21.6%	13.7%	16.6%	20.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	4.6%	21.6%	13.7%	16.6%	20.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	4.6%	21.6%	13.7%	16.6%	20.8%
2026-10-17T07:45:00+00:00	20.4%	21.6%	13.7%	33.3%	44.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	20.4%	21.6%	13.7%	33.3%	44.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	20.4%	21.6%	13.7%	33.3%	44.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	20.4%	21.6%	13.7%	33.3%	44.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	20.4%	21.6%	13.7%	33.3%	44.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	20.4%	53.5%	13.7%	33.3%	44.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	20.4%	53.5%	13.7%	33.3%	44.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	20.4%	53.5%	13.7%	33.3%	44.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00	18.2%	53.5%	13.7%	33.3%	44.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	18.2%	53.5%	13.7%	33.3%	44.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:13+00:00	18.2%	50.9%	13.7%	33.3%	44.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	18.2%	50.9%	13.7%	33.3%	44.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	18.2%	50.9%	9.4%	33.3%	44.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	18.2%	50.9%	9.4%	33.3%	44.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	18.2%	50.9%	9.4%	33.3%	44.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	18.2%	50.9%	9.4%	33.3%	44.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:15+00:00	25.2%	50.9%	9.4%	47.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	25.2%	50.9%	9.4%	47.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	25.2%	50.9%	9.4%	47.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	25.2%	50.9%	9.4%	47.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	25.2%	50.9%	17.1%	47.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	25.2%	50.9%	17.1%	47.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	25.2%	50.9%	17.1%	47.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	25.2%	50.9%	17.1%	47.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	24.0%	50.9%	17.1%	47.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	24.0%	50.9%	17.1%	47.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	24.0%	50.9%	17.1%	47.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:35+00:00	24.0%	50.9%	17.1%	47.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	24.0%	50.9%	12.1%	47.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	24.0%	50.9%	12.1%	47.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	24.0%	50.9%	12.1%	47.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	24.0%	50.9%	12.1%	47.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:46+00:00	24.3%	50.9%	12.1%	33.0%	68.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	24.3%	50.9%	12.1%	33.0%	68.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	24.3%	50.9%	12.1%	33.0%	68.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:28+00:00	24.3%	50.9%	12.1%	33.0%	68.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	24.3%	48.0%	7.0%	33.0%	68.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	24.3%	48.0%	7.0%	33.0%	68.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00	24.3%	48.0%	7.0%	33.0%	68.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	24.3%	48.0%	7.0%	33.0%	68.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	12.4%	48.0%	7.0%	33.0%	68.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	12.4%	48.0%	7.0%	33.0%	68.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:37+00:00	12.4%	46.0%	7.0%	33.0%	68.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	12.4%	46.0%	7.0%	33.0%	68.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	12.4%	46.0%	6.3%	33.0%	68.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	12.4%	46.0%	6.3%	33.0%	68.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	12.4%	46.0%	6.3%	33.0%	68.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	9.6%	46.0%	6.3%	28.1%	1.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	9.6%	46.0%	6.3%	28.1%	1.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	9.6%	46.0%	6.3%	28.1%	1.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	9.6%	46.0%	6.3%	28.1%	1.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	9.6%	46.0%	6.3%	28.1%	1.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	9.6%	46.0%	9.9%	28.1%	1.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:56+00:00	9.6%	46.0%	9.9%	28.1%	1.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	9.6%	46.0%	9.9%	28.1%	1.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	9.9%	46.0%	9.9%	28.1%	1.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	9.9%	46.0%	9.9%	28.1%	1.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	9.9%	46.0%	9.9%	28.1%	1.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	9.9%	46.0%	9.9%	28.1%	1.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:24+00:00	9.9%	46.0%	9.9%	28.1%	1.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	9.9%	46.0%	9.4%	28.1%	1.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00	9.9%	46.0%	9.4%	28.1%	1.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	9.9%	46.0%	9.4%	28.1%	1.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:41+00:00	10.7%	46.0%	9.4%	50.9%	2.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	10.7%	46.0%	9.4%	50.9%	2.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	10.7%	46.0%	9.4%	50.9%	2.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	10.7%	46.0%	9.4%	50.9%	2.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:23+00:00	10.7%	46.0%	9.4%	50.9%	2.2%
2026-10-19T11:21:13+00:00	10.7%	44.2%	5.5%	50.9%	2.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	10.7%	44.2%	5.5%	50.9%	2.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	10.7%	44.2%	5.5%	50.9%	2.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	8.4%	44.2%	5.5%	50.9%	2.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	8.3%	44.2%	5.4%	50.9%	2.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:51+00:00	8.3%	44.0%	5.4%	50.9%	2.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	8.3%	44.0%	5.4%	50.9%	2.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	8.3%	44.0%	5.4%	50.9%	2.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	8.3%	44.0%	6.1%	50.9%	2.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	8.3%	44.0%	6.1%	50.9%	2.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00	8.3%	44.0%	6.1%	50.9%	2.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	4.6%	44.0%	6.1%	43.8%	1.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	4.6%	44.0%	6.1%	43.8%	1.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	4.6%	44.0%	6.1%	43.8%	1.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	4.6%	44.0%	6.1%	43.8%	1.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	4.6%	44.0%	6.1%	43.8%	1.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	4.6%	44.0%	5.7%	43.8%	1.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	4.6%	44.0%	5.7%	43.8%	1.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	4.6%	44.0%	5.7%	43.8%	1.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	7.0%	44.0%	5.7%	43.8%	1.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	7.0%	44.0%	5.7%	43.8%	1.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	7.0%	44.0%	5.7%	43.8%	1.0%
2026-10-20T04:05:27+00:00	7.0%	44.0%	5.7%	43.8%	1.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	7.0%	44.0%	5.7%	43.8%	1.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	7.0%	44.0%	3.7%	43.8%	1.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	7.0%	44.0%	3.7%	43.8%	1.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	7.0%	44.0%	3.7%	43.8%	1.0%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	1.5%	44.0%	3.7%	43.8%	4.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	1.5%	44.0%	3.7%	43.8%	4.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	1.5%	44.0%	3.7%	43.8%	4.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	1.5%	44.0%	3.7%	43.8%	4.3%
2026-10-20T10:54:10+00:00	1.5%	45.5%	1.1%	12.1%	4.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	1.5%	45.5%	1.1%	12.1%	4.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	1.5%	45.5%	1.1%	12.1%	4.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	1.5%	45.5%	1.1%	12.1%	4.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00	1.5%	45.5%	1.1%	12.1%	4.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	1.5%	45.5%	1.1%	12.1%	4.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	76.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	75.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	71.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	70.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	67.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	69.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗