KABQ / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

80%

42%

39%

27%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 61.2¢Risks 61.20u

AIFSNO 38.8¢Risks 38.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +38.80u · AIFS −38.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	20.5%	95.5%	19.3%	44.4%	58.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	20.7%	95.5%	19.4%	44.5%	58.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	20.7%	95.8%	19.4%	44.5%	58.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	20.7%	95.8%	19.4%	44.5%	58.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	20.7%	95.8%	19.4%	44.5%	58.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	20.7%	95.8%	32.6%	44.5%	58.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	20.7%	95.8%	32.6%	44.5%	58.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	20.7%	95.8%	32.6%	44.5%	58.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:14+00:00	27.1%	95.8%	32.6%	44.5%	80.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	27.1%	95.8%	32.6%	44.5%	80.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	27.1%	95.8%	32.6%	44.5%	80.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	27.1%	95.8%	32.6%	44.5%	80.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	27.1%	95.8%	32.6%	42.0%	80.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	27.1%	95.8%	39.2%	42.0%	80.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	27.1%	95.8%	39.2%	42.0%	80.1%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	27.1%	95.8%	39.2%	42.0%	80.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	26.6%	95.8%	39.2%	42.0%	80.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	26.6%	95.8%	39.2%	42.0%	80.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	26.6%	95.8%	39.2%	42.0%	80.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	26.6%	95.8%	39.2%	42.0%	80.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	72.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	72.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	65.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	63.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	63.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	60.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261023-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 65°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗