KABQ / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

80%

42%

39%

27%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 61.2¢Risks 61.20u

AIFSNO 38.8¢Risks 38.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +38.80u · AIFS −38.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	27.8%	—	—	47.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	46.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	1.7%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	33.0%	82.9%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	78.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	74.8%	45.1%	25.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	35.7%	61.6%	73.4%	—	71.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	67.0%	86.2%	81.1%	—	73.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	96.5%	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	96.6%	93.8%	97.0%	—	48.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	81.0%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	83.2%	89.9%	97.2%	—	47.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	69.7%	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	89.5%	87.4%	91.3%	—	61.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	92.8%	95.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	89.4%	97.7%	98.5%	—	60.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	94.1%	96.0%	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	97.0%	96.5%	98.7%	99.0%	74.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	97.6%	—	—	82.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	72.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	72.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	65.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	63.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	63.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	60.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261023-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 65°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗