KABQ / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

18%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 13.1¢Risks 13.10u

AIFSNO 86.9¢Risks 86.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +86.90u · AIFS −86.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T19:37:14+00:00	0.4%	22.0%	0.3%	2.3%	35.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	0.4%	22.0%	0.3%	2.3%	35.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	0.4%	22.0%	0.3%	2.3%	35.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	0.4%	22.0%	0.3%	2.3%	35.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	0.4%	22.0%	0.3%	2.0%	35.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	0.4%	22.0%	0.4%	2.0%	35.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	0.4%	22.0%	0.4%	2.0%	35.9%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	0.4%	22.0%	0.4%	2.0%	35.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	0.3%	22.0%	0.4%	2.0%	35.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	0.3%	22.0%	0.4%	2.0%	35.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	0.3%	22.0%	0.4%	2.0%	35.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	0.3%	22.0%	0.4%	2.0%	35.9%
2026-10-17T04:42:23+00:00	0.3%	22.0%	0.4%	2.0%	35.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	0.3%	22.0%	1.5%	2.0%	35.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	0.3%	22.0%	1.5%	2.0%	35.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	0.3%	22.0%	1.5%	2.0%	35.9%
2026-10-17T07:45:00+00:00	11.1%	22.0%	1.5%	23.4%	7.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	11.1%	22.0%	1.5%	23.4%	7.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	11.1%	22.0%	1.5%	23.4%	7.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	11.1%	22.0%	1.5%	23.4%	7.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	11.1%	22.0%	1.5%	23.4%	7.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	11.1%	42.7%	5.7%	23.4%	7.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	11.1%	42.7%	5.7%	23.4%	7.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	11.1%	42.7%	5.7%	23.4%	7.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00	10.8%	42.7%	5.7%	23.7%	7.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	10.8%	42.8%	5.7%	23.4%	7.5%
2026-10-17T15:25:13+00:00	10.8%	40.1%	5.7%	23.4%	7.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	10.8%	40.1%	5.7%	23.4%	7.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	10.8%	40.1%	2.9%	23.4%	7.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	10.8%	40.1%	2.9%	23.4%	7.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	10.8%	40.1%	2.9%	23.4%	7.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	10.8%	40.1%	2.9%	23.4%	7.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:15+00:00	16.8%	40.1%	2.9%	18.2%	20.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	16.8%	40.1%	2.9%	18.2%	20.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	16.8%	40.1%	2.9%	18.2%	20.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	16.8%	40.1%	2.9%	18.2%	20.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	16.8%	40.1%	2.6%	18.2%	20.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	16.8%	40.0%	2.6%	18.2%	20.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	16.8%	40.0%	2.6%	18.2%	20.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	16.8%	40.0%	2.6%	18.2%	20.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	20.8%	40.0%	2.6%	18.2%	20.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	20.8%	40.0%	2.6%	18.2%	20.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	20.8%	40.0%	2.6%	18.2%	20.1%
2026-10-18T04:14:36+00:00	20.8%	40.0%	2.6%	18.2%	20.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	20.8%	40.0%	4.2%	18.2%	20.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	20.8%	40.0%	4.2%	18.2%	20.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	20.8%	40.0%	4.2%	18.2%	20.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	20.8%	40.0%	4.2%	18.2%	20.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:46+00:00	14.2%	40.0%	4.2%	12.4%	48.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	14.2%	40.0%	4.2%	12.4%	48.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	14.2%	40.0%	4.2%	12.4%	48.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:28+00:00	14.2%	40.0%	4.2%	12.4%	48.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	14.2%	34.0%	3.4%	12.4%	48.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	14.2%	34.0%	3.4%	12.4%	48.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00	14.2%	34.0%	3.4%	12.4%	48.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	14.2%	34.0%	3.4%	12.4%	48.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	10.2%	34.2%	3.4%	12.4%	48.7%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	10.2%	34.2%	3.4%	12.4%	48.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:37+00:00	10.2%	33.2%	3.4%	12.4%	48.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	10.2%	33.2%	3.4%	12.4%	48.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	10.2%	33.2%	5.4%	12.4%	48.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	10.2%	33.2%	5.4%	12.4%	48.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	10.2%	33.2%	5.4%	12.4%	48.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	7.0%	33.2%	5.4%	4.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	7.0%	33.2%	5.4%	4.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	7.0%	33.2%	5.4%	4.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	7.0%	33.2%	5.4%	4.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	7.0%	33.2%	5.4%	4.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	7.0%	33.2%	3.4%	4.1%	22.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:56+00:00	7.0%	33.2%	3.4%	4.1%	22.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	7.0%	33.2%	3.4%	4.1%	22.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	10.2%	33.2%	3.4%	4.1%	22.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	10.2%	33.2%	3.4%	4.1%	22.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	10.2%	33.2%	3.4%	4.1%	22.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	10.2%	33.2%	3.4%	4.1%	22.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:24+00:00	10.2%	33.2%	3.4%	4.1%	22.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	10.2%	33.2%	3.4%	4.1%	22.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00	10.2%	33.2%	3.4%	4.1%	22.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	10.2%	33.2%	3.4%	4.1%	22.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:41+00:00	5.1%	33.2%	3.4%	13.6%	17.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	5.1%	33.2%	3.4%	13.6%	17.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	5.1%	33.2%	3.4%	13.6%	17.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	5.1%	33.2%	3.4%	13.6%	17.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:23+00:00	5.1%	33.2%	3.4%	13.6%	17.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:13+00:00	5.1%	34.0%	1.4%	13.6%	17.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	5.1%	34.0%	1.4%	13.6%	17.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	5.1%	34.0%	1.4%	13.6%	17.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	4.9%	34.0%	1.4%	13.6%	17.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	4.9%	34.0%	1.4%	13.6%	17.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:51+00:00	4.9%	34.0%	1.4%	13.6%	17.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	4.9%	34.0%	1.4%	13.6%	17.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	4.9%	34.0%	1.4%	13.6%	17.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	4.9%	34.0%	2.2%	13.6%	17.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	4.9%	34.0%	2.2%	13.6%	17.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00	4.9%	34.0%	2.2%	13.6%	17.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	2.7%	34.0%	2.2%	14.0%	15.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	2.7%	34.0%	2.2%	14.0%	15.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	2.7%	34.0%	2.2%	14.0%	15.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	2.7%	34.0%	2.2%	14.0%	15.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	2.7%	34.0%	2.2%	14.0%	15.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	2.7%	34.0%	2.5%	14.0%	15.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	2.7%	34.0%	2.5%	14.0%	15.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	2.7%	34.0%	2.5%	14.0%	15.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	4.0%	34.0%	2.5%	14.0%	15.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	4.0%	34.0%	2.5%	14.0%	15.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	4.0%	34.0%	2.5%	14.0%	15.7%
2026-10-20T04:05:27+00:00	4.0%	34.0%	2.5%	14.0%	15.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	4.0%	34.0%	2.5%	14.0%	15.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	4.0%	34.0%	1.8%	14.0%	15.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	4.0%	34.0%	1.8%	14.0%	15.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	4.0%	34.0%	1.8%	14.0%	15.7%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	1.5%	34.0%	1.8%	14.0%	18.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	1.5%	34.0%	1.8%	14.0%	18.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	1.5%	34.0%	1.8%	14.0%	18.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	1.5%	34.0%	1.8%	14.0%	18.3%
2026-10-20T10:54:10+00:00	1.5%	24.7%	1.6%	11.7%	18.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	1.5%	24.7%	1.6%	11.7%	18.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	1.5%	24.7%	1.6%	11.7%	18.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	1.5%	24.7%	1.6%	11.7%	18.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	25%	73.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	72.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	71.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	69.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	67.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 19:37 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗