KABQ / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

18%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 13.1¢Risks 13.05u

AIFSNO 86.9¢Risks 86.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +86.95u · AIFS −86.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.9%	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	13.9%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.4%	1.3%	0.3%	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.5%	2.8%	5.7%	—	5.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	3.2%	11.4%	7.8%	—	4.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	29.9%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	28.1%	19.5%	30.1%	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	5.8%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	6.1%	10.8%	27.2%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	2.0%	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	8.3%	6.8%	10.1%	—	0.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	10.8%	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	6.3%	21.6%	27.4%	—	0.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	10.0%	13.7%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	14.7%	13.1%	24.0%	27.1%	1.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	15.2%	—	—	1.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	25%	73.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	72.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	71.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	69.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	1%	67.2°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 19:37 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗