KTUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

68%

60%

56%

26%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 56.1¢Risks 56.15u

WN2NO 43.9¢Risks 43.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +43.85u · WN2 −43.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:45:00+00:00	27.1%	73.9%	39.9%	49.4%	11.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	27.1%	73.9%	39.9%	49.4%	11.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	27.1%	73.9%	39.9%	49.4%	11.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	27.1%	73.9%	39.9%	49.4%	11.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	27.1%	73.9%	39.9%	49.4%	11.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	27.1%	88.1%	49.2%	49.4%	11.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	27.1%	88.1%	49.2%	49.4%	11.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	27.1%	88.1%	49.2%	49.4%	11.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00	56.2%	88.1%	49.2%	49.4%	11.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	56.2%	88.1%	49.2%	49.4%	11.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:13+00:00	56.2%	86.4%	49.2%	49.4%	11.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	56.2%	86.4%	49.2%	49.4%	11.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	56.2%	86.4%	43.8%	49.4%	11.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	56.2%	86.4%	43.8%	49.4%	11.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	56.2%	86.4%	43.8%	49.4%	11.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	56.2%	86.4%	43.8%	49.4%	11.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:15+00:00	41.1%	86.4%	43.8%	55.5%	68.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	41.1%	86.4%	43.8%	55.5%	68.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	41.1%	86.4%	43.8%	55.5%	68.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	41.1%	86.4%	43.8%	55.5%	68.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	41.1%	86.4%	25.9%	55.5%	68.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	41.1%	86.4%	25.9%	55.5%	68.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	41.1%	86.4%	25.9%	55.5%	68.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	41.1%	86.4%	25.9%	55.5%	68.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	60.3%	86.4%	25.9%	55.5%	68.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	60.3%	86.4%	25.9%	55.5%	68.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	60.3%	86.4%	25.9%	55.5%	68.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	86%	71.3°F	6.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	68%	69.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	66.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	65.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	65.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	61.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261024-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗