KABQ / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

68%

60%

56%

26%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 56.1¢Risks 56.15u

WN2NO 43.9¢Risks 43.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +43.85u · WN2 −43.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	62.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	86.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	37.2%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	93.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	0.2%	39.3%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	50.7%	87.8%	8.2%	—	29.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	86.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	58.7%	90.0%	65.0%	—	28.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	94.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	57.6%	89.3%	55.3%	—	22.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	85.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	61.8%	77.6%	60.3%	—	27.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	81.6%	78.7%	67.8%	—	23.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	33.4%	88.5%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	81.6%	95.5%	70.1%	67.0%	33.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	98.2%	—	—	46.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	86%	71.3°F	6.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	68%	69.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	66.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	65.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	65.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	61.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261024-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 65°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗