KABQ / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.8¢Risks 3.92u

WN2NO 92.2¢Risks 46.08u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.08u · WN2 −46.08u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T19:56:15+00:00	1.0%	20.1%	0.6%	4.3%	23.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	1.0%	20.1%	0.6%	4.3%	23.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	1.0%	20.1%	0.6%	4.3%	23.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	1.0%	20.1%	0.6%	4.3%	23.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	3.4%	20.1%	0.1%	4.3%	23.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	3.4%	20.1%	0.1%	4.3%	23.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	3.4%	20.1%	0.1%	4.3%	23.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	3.4%	20.1%	0.3%	4.3%	23.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	3.4%	20.1%	0.3%	4.3%	23.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	3.4%	20.1%	0.3%	4.3%	23.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	3.4%	20.1%	0.3%	4.3%	23.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:46+00:00	4.8%	20.1%	0.3%	3.9%	16.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	4.8%	20.1%	0.3%	3.9%	16.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	4.8%	20.1%	0.3%	3.9%	16.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:28+00:00	4.8%	20.1%	0.3%	3.9%	16.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	4.8%	3.2%	0.4%	3.9%	16.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	4.8%	3.2%	0.4%	3.9%	16.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00	4.8%	3.2%	0.4%	3.9%	16.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	4.8%	3.2%	0.4%	3.9%	16.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	4.6%	3.4%	0.4%	3.9%	16.0%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	4.6%	3.4%	0.4%	3.9%	16.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	4.6%	2.9%	0.4%	3.9%	16.0%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	4.6%	2.9%	0.4%	3.9%	16.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	4.6%	2.9%	0.4%	3.9%	16.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	4.6%	2.9%	0.4%	3.9%	16.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	4.6%	2.9%	0.4%	3.9%	16.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	2.3%	2.9%	0.3%	2.5%	15.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	2.3%	2.9%	0.3%	2.5%	15.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	2.3%	2.9%	0.3%	2.5%	15.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	2.3%	2.9%	0.3%	2.5%	15.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	15%	69.2°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	67.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	63.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	65.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	63.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 19:56 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗