KABQ / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.8¢Risks 3.92u

WN2NO 92.2¢Risks 46.08u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.08u · WN2 −46.08u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.1%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.8%	17.1%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.4%	17.9%	3.5%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.8%	14.6%	1.5%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.8%	5.1%	1.6%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.3%	4.3%	2.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	8.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.1%	17.2%	1.7%	1.4%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	27.1%	—	—	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	15%	69.2°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	67.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	63.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	65.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	63.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 19:56 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗