KABQ / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

48%

45%

16%

14%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 32.4¢Risks 32.35u

WN2NO 67.7¢Risks 67.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +67.65u · WN2 −67.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	35.1%	48.1%	17.4%	83.6%	25.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	35.1%	48.1%	17.4%	83.6%	25.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00	35.1%	48.1%	17.4%	83.6%	25.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	35.1%	48.1%	17.4%	83.6%	25.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	16.1%	48.1%	17.4%	83.6%	25.1%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	16.1%	48.1%	17.4%	83.6%	25.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	16.1%	45.1%	17.4%	83.6%	25.1%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	16.1%	45.1%	17.4%	83.6%	25.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	16.1%	45.1%	15.4%	83.6%	25.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	16.1%	45.1%	15.4%	83.6%	25.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	16.1%	45.1%	15.4%	83.6%	25.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	25.4%	45.1%	15.4%	50.6%	48.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	25.4%	45.1%	15.4%	50.6%	48.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	25.4%	45.1%	15.4%	50.6%	48.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	25.4%	45.1%	15.4%	50.6%	48.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	25.4%	45.1%	15.4%	50.6%	48.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	25.4%	45.1%	14.1%	50.6%	48.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:56+00:00	25.4%	45.1%	14.1%	50.6%	48.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	25.4%	45.1%	14.1%	50.6%	48.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	16.5%	45.1%	14.1%	50.6%	48.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	16.5%	45.1%	14.1%	50.6%	48.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	16.5%	45.1%	14.1%	50.6%	48.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	16.5%	45.1%	14.1%	50.6%	48.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	53%	67.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	66.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	48%	66.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	66.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	60.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	61.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261025-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 67°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗