KABQ / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

48%

45%

16%

14%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 32.4¢Risks 32.35u

WN2NO 67.7¢Risks 67.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +67.65u · WN2 −67.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	13.7%	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	61.6%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	2.8%	3.8%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	18.9%	21.4%	3.2%	—	29.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	48.5%	60.1%	26.6%	—	21.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	57.6%	36.5%	64.9%	—	13.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	48.4%	66.3%	42.9%	1.4%	10.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	71.7%	—	—	10.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	53%	67.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	66.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	48%	66.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	66.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	60.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	61.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261025-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 67°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗