KABQ / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

38%

34%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 38.7¢Risks 38.75u

WN2NO 61.3¢Risks 61.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +61.25u · WN2 −61.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:46+00:00	28.9%	39.5%	17.1%	79.4%	22.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	28.9%	39.5%	17.1%	79.4%	22.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	28.9%	39.5%	17.1%	79.4%	22.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:28+00:00	28.9%	39.5%	17.1%	79.4%	22.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:51+00:00	11.4%	34.4%	4.3%	40.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	11.4%	34.4%	4.3%	40.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	11.4%	34.4%	4.3%	40.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	11.4%	34.4%	6.7%	40.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	11.4%	34.4%	6.7%	40.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00	11.4%	34.4%	6.7%	40.4%	63.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	15.0%	34.4%	6.7%	37.5%	69.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	15.0%	34.4%	6.7%	37.5%	69.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	15.0%	34.4%	6.7%	37.5%	69.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	15.0%	34.4%	6.7%	37.5%	69.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	15.0%	34.4%	6.7%	37.5%	69.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	15.0%	34.4%	8.2%	37.5%	69.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	15.0%	34.4%	8.2%	37.5%	69.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	15.0%	34.4%	8.2%	37.5%	69.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	8.8%	34.4%	8.2%	37.5%	69.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	8.8%	34.4%	8.2%	37.5%	69.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	8.8%	34.4%	8.2%	37.5%	69.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	69%	71.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	65.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	65.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	60.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	61.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261025-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗