KABQ / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

38%

34%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 38.7¢Risks 38.75u

WN2NO 61.3¢Risks 61.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +61.25u · WN2 −61.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	10.6%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	55.2%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	1.8%	2.6%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	14.5%	16.6%	2.1%	—	24.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	41.3%	52.9%	21.0%	—	16.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	50.0%	29.6%	57.6%	—	10.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	40.5%	58.7%	35.2%	0.8%	7.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	64.4%	—	—	7.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	69%	71.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	65.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	65.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	60.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	61.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261025-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗