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KABQ / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 13:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
34%
ICON
6%
AIFS
3%
EPS
1%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 17.1¢Risks 17.05u
VS
WN2NO 83.0¢Risks 82.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +82.95u · WN2 −82.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:28+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:28+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00IFS HRES: 33.8% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00ICON: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00ICON: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00ICON: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:28+00:00ICON: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00ICON: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00ICON: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00ICON: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 11:0210-18 13:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:002.6%2.0%0.8%33.8%5.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:002.6%2.0%0.8%33.8%5.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:002.6%2.0%0.8%33.8%5.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:28+00:002.6%2.0%0.8%33.8%5.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:002.6%1.2%0.3%33.8%5.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:002.6%1.2%0.3%33.8%5.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:002.6%1.2%0.3%33.8%5.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:002.6%1.2%0.3%33.8%5.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES34%72.8°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend10%67.0°F6.6°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
ICON6%59.9°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%64.3°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble1%66.3°F4.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%61.7°F5.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261025-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗