KABQ / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 13:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 17.1¢Risks 17.05u

WN2NO 83.0¢Risks 82.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +82.95u · WN2 −82.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.7%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	12.0%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	0.9%	0.0%	—	1.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.6%	8.2%	1.1%	—	0.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.3%	1.9%	9.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.3%	8.4%	2.4%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	10.2%	—	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	34%	72.8°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	10%	67.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	6%	59.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	64.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	66.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	61.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261025-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗