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KABQ / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
35%
HRES
27%
EPS
2%
AIFS
1%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 17.8¢Risks 17.75u
VS
WN2NO 82.2¢Risks 82.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +82.25u · WN2 −82.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T04:05:29+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS HRES: 27.2% · 2026-10-20T04:05:29+00:00IFS HRES: 27.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00ICON: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T04:05:29+00:00ICON: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 04:51
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:29+00:001.1%2.3%0.3%27.2%35.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:001.1%2.3%0.3%27.2%35.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON35%71.7°F10.0°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS HRES27%71.6°F6.4°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
NWS forecast5%66.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%66.1°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend2%66.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
AIFS Single1%62.3°F5.7°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%61.3°F5.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261026-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗